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I'm really enjoying your discussions, Jason. You obviously show a lot of consideration on the topic.
If I didn’t enjoy it, I wouldn’t be here.

That said, between you and Van, I feel entirely outclassed. At least what you and Van post is useful.
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My oldest son is taking a college freshman course in logic. He often consults with me on his problem sets, which I absolutely love. There are many brain-twisters in the problems, and a lot of intentional misleads and redirections.
Which leads me (respectfully) to accuse you of a false argument below.
I've seen this argument over and over again on our myriad Forums discussions. Van uses it a lot, but I give him a pass. Why? Because his modus operendum is to shake people's core beliefs with piss-your-pants scenarios. Better Van cause someone to confront false gods in the safe confines of a Forums discussion than to face it way too late at the moment of truth. If you don't cling to false beliefs, then you don't take Van's bait. If you do...
What you do here is to pit the extremes of classroom training with zero life experience against experience with zero classroom training. You conclude that the lifetime experience leads to 'optimal' performance and the classroom training leads to "a crapshoot." Your argument falls apart in two places: 1) my "reasonably well-trained person" you refer to above doesn't compare to your stereotype classroom warrior, and 2) you've presented no evidence that suggests that someone with "zero training" but a few really bad experiences is going to "respond optimally." What kind of spontaneous generation epiphany turns a blank martial slate into an effective warrior? I know of no paradigm either in law enforcement or the military. I assume none exists amongst the weekend warriors.
That’s the clincher, Bill. ‘Reasonably well-trained person’ is a loaded, subjective term. For me, it means they’ve got a moderate amount of training, maybe taking a martial arts class two days a week with a good instructor, maybe working it on their own one to two days a week, and they've been doing it for five years.
Good instruction is also subjective. What’s good to somebody going to a McDojo is crap to a purist working out in a garage with someone (a former golden-gloves boxer and free-style karate tournament world-circuit winner) giving two-hour classes for free. A Marine with a black belt in the MCMA (God help me, I probably screwed up that acronym) style would probably laugh at a high-ranking Capoeirista (probably messed that up, too). I’ve seen a second-degree black belt in TKD who took out 4 would-be muggers at one time on his pizza delivery job, and a second-degree black belt (again, TKD) whose face was unrecognizable SPAK (Status-Post A$$-Kicking) thanks to a single jerk at a bar.
What do I mean by ‘respond optimally?’ I mean a little fist fight isn’t going to send their fight-or-flight through the roof. They’re not going to freeze at the first sign that something’s going to go down. They’re not questioning whether they should do something until it’s already happening and they’re behind the curve. They just act. Maybe not skillfully, but skill that’s unreliable is no help at all.
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My "perfect paradigm" is my Goju/aikido instructor who trained as a kid in the dojo (judo, kyokushinkai, goju) and then became a green beret and subsequently a trainer of said special forces. Another good example is Rory who trained as a kid in the dojo (sosuishitsu ryu jiujitsu) and then advanced his education as a prison guard and an instructor of the same. A good musician understands the balance between practice and playing. A good martial artist understands that training, practice, and experience all count.
All fine examples of a merging of classroom and real-life experience producing the ‘perfect package.’ But by and large, real-life experience and classroom experience are rarely exemplified in a single person. When they do, it is not in someone ‘moderately-well trained.’ Not by my definition.
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Thanks for the soap box.
It’s your soapbox, Bill. Thanks for letting me borrow it from time to time.
