Why awareness and the 2nd amendment are our friends

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Bill Glasheen
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Why awareness and the 2nd amendment are our friends

Post by Bill Glasheen »

This happened just 24 hours ago.
Man Fatally Shot During Midlothian Home Invasion

Posted: Mar 17, 2014 5:01 AM EDT
Updated: Mar 17, 2014 10:41 PM EDT
By WRIC Newsroom

MIDLOTHIAN, Va. (WRIC)—A 27-year-old man was fatally shot in the head during a home invasion early Monday morning.

Chesterfield County Police were called to a home on the 12500 block of Little Pond Lane in Midlothian just after 3 a.m. on March 17 for a report of an assault with a deadly weapon. After a botched burglary attempt, the suspect shot Farzad Sultani in the head. The victim was been transported to Johnston-Willis Hospital, where he passed away. Others were home at the time of the shooting, but no one else was injured.

Image

The suspect, who allegedly got in through the backdoor of the home, managed to escape, and police are currently conducting a massive search in the area. Chesterfield Police told ABC 8 News Reporter Sydney Cameron that the area is “not safe” while they continue to search for the suspect. The scene remains active, and police expect to continue canvassing the area for several hours.

Little Pond Lane is located off of Olde Coalmine Road, south of Robius Road and north of Midlothian Turnpike.

Police do not believe this incident was a random act. Anyone with information about this incident or the suspect’s whereabouts is urged to call the Chesterfield County Police Department at 804-748-1251, or contact Crime Solvers by calling 804-748-0660 or texting “WATSON” followed by the message to 274637.
WRIC

So much for being safe in your home.

So much for being invulnerable at the prime of your life.

So much for being able to get help via 911.

- Bill
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Bill Glasheen
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Re: Why awareness and the 2nd amendment are our friends

Post by Bill Glasheen »

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Glenn
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Re: Why awareness and the 2nd amendment are our friends

Post by Glenn »

WRIC Newsroom wrote: Police do not believe this incident was a random act.
That right there may say it all. Here in Lincoln home invasions almost always turn out to be someone invading the homes of drug sellers looking for their stash of drugs and money. The Lincoln police chief (now public safety director) put it very bluntly a couple of years ago regarding how to prevent home invasion robberies:
Lincoln Police Chief Tom Casady wrote: Don't deal drugs
He went on to elaborate:
Lincoln Police Chief Tom Casady wrote: The reason this advice would be so effective is that the target in most home invasion robberies is the victim's stash of drugs and money. Sometimes the victim tells us the truth about this, but often the story is just so full of holes and inconsistencies that you know there is more to it. When you check the victim's record, you find his or her pattern of drug-related arrests and intelligence information about his or her dealing.

Evil-doers (can I say that?), hearing that the victim has a wad of cash and a kilo of pot (or whatever drug you wish to substitute), decide to arm themselves and pay a visit. By the time the police arrive, the story usually goes something like this:

"I was sitting around playing Nintendo at 3:30 AM, fully clothed, when someone knocked on the door. I looked out the peephole, and did not recognize the three men in hoodies, so I did what any right-thinking Nintendo-player would do at 3:30 AM: opened the door. The strangers pushed their way in, conked me on the head, shot the couch, ransacked the place, took $20 I had in my pocket, and left without taking anything else. They did not take my TV, my camera, my computer, or my Wii."

These robberies sometimes have tragic consequences. I can only recall two home invasion robberies during my career [which began in 1974] where the victims did not contribute unwittingly to the crime through their own illegal or high-risk conduct.

This may not be the what happened in this particular case, but it would seem he was targeted for a reason.
Glenn
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Bill Glasheen
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Re: Why awareness and the 2nd amendment are our friends

Post by Bill Glasheen »

Glenn

I know of the area. Sorry, but this isn't where you would find drug activity. In Richmond city? Yes. In Suburban Chesterfield? The probability is very low. I also noted the name. My instincts told me something different.

This article fleshes out what I suspected.
Alex Holm says he lives behind the victim, and heard the shots through an open window.

"I woke up to a little bit of bantering, sounded like a struggle. So I went to my window just listening to see what it was and about 10-15 seconds later after all that it was the gunshot," said Holm.

Police have not made any arrests or released a possible motive, but detectives do not believe the killing was a random act.

Sultani's friends visited the crime scene Monday morning and said they were shocked by his death. Sultani's parents were killed when their home in Afghanistan was bombed, according to his friends.

"He had hopes. He was trying to make it, but look after his family," said Taj Nabi. "Farzad Sultani was a good person, period. He was a good friend, a good family member. He was a respected person. He touched a lot of people wherever you went."

Sultani lived with his siblings, according to police. Friends say they moved here for a better life and Sultani worked in construction to help provide for the family. They say he went bowling weekly with friends and didn't believe he was involved in anything that would lead to this attack.
More here...

Man shot, killed in overnight Midlothian home invasion

We take a lot for granted. For some people, safety is a much more tenuous proposition.

- Bill
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Glenn
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Re: Why awareness and the 2nd amendment are our friends

Post by Glenn »

[Sultani's friend] didn't believe he was involved in anything that would lead to this attack
Obviously that angle is being investigated and the questions asked. Something makes the police think it was non-random, even if it is not drug related.

Regarding your choice of thread title, courts have ruled illegal immigrants do not have 2nd amendment rights, but what about legal immigrants (assuming Sultani was here legally)?
Glenn
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Bill Glasheen
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Re: Why awareness and the 2nd amendment are our friends

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Glenn wrote: Something makes the police think it was non-random, even if it is not drug related.
I did as well, without even considering a drug angle. What is so obvious to me that's not obvious to you?
Glenn wrote: what about legal immigrants (assuming Sultani was here legally)?
Legal immigrants and citizens are protected by our constitution. Sultani had a construction job (which would have required all the right papers), lived with family in a safe suburban neighborhood, and had no mentioned issues with the law. He obviously had a strong social network, as friends were there at his home to offer support. And he had "nosy neighbors" - another sign that this wasn't your typical drug dealer house. His neighbor knew things weren't right even before the shot was fired.

- Bill
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Glenn
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Re: Why awareness and the 2nd amendment are our friends

Post by Glenn »

If you are referring to him being Afghani and probably Muslim, those are not obvious factors since no one else in his family was harmed among those who were home at the time. And why are you keeping your speculations a secret anyways? We are both operating under the premise that he was specifically targeted, I have offered one possible common cause and acknowledged up front that it is only speculation. My main goal was to point out that home invasions are rarely random attacks on the innocent since the media rarely points that out, not to get into a guessing game.
Glenn
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Bill Glasheen
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Re: Why awareness and the 2nd amendment are our friends

Post by Bill Glasheen »

I am speaking as a person who deals with data and predictive models all the time. I rarely build a predictive model that surprises me in terms of the variables that the software chooses. The only thing that commonly surprises (or disappoints) me is the magnitude of the effect of the independent variable predictors.

Since Richmond is on the I-95 corridor, drugs flow freely. (Weapons did as well until a change in the law.) But the geographic and demographic patterns are *highly* predictable. If this is a drug-related shooting, then by geography alone it would be highly anomalous. Add in the testimonials of people who had no fear of the camera, and it makes the probability even more remote.

Yes, ethnicity matters here. It's an interesting red flag. Religion? Maybe and maybe not.

Yes, living with family matters here. There's a higher chance that it's love gone wrong than drug deal gone wrong. It is a good reason why the detective - without showing his hand - told the reporter "we don't want people to think that it's going to occur in any regularity."

- Bill
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Glenn
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Re: Why awareness and the 2nd amendment are our friends

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When your models can predict the bracket winners, then I will be impressed.
Glenn
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Bill Glasheen
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Re: Why awareness and the 2nd amendment are our friends

Post by Bill Glasheen »

Funny you mentioned that... I won the last bracket pool I entered in my analytics division. I donated my winnings to the local Red Cross who were helping the tornado victims.

*I* thought the outcome was obvious that year. Others apparently not.

Not-so-bold prediction - Barry's bracket is a *massive* FAIL. Check it out. It made me chuckle.

..... Obama's Bracket for the 2014 NCAAB Tournament

It isn't just that Barry will fail; it's *why* he will fail. ;-)

- Bill
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Bill Glasheen
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Re: Why awareness and the 2nd amendment are our friends

Post by Bill Glasheen »

Well now that we know Obama failed miserably on his bracket, we can get back to the story.

I waited a few days, and then did another search. I found this. Interesting...
CHESTERFIELD, Va. (WTVR)–There is new information about the murder of 27-year-old Farzad Sultani, a Chesterfield man who died Monday morning in a home invasion and shooting, according to Chesterfield Police.
Sultani’s older brother shot back at his brother’s attacker, police said.

Around 3 a.m. Monday the gunman shot his way into the house on 12000 block of Little Pond Lane, off Midlothian Turnpike. He shot into the back door to break the glass and got in that way, and then killed Sultani, according to police.
The gunfire neighbors reported hearing were from Sultani’s older brother, who told police he woke up, discovered the gunman, got his own gun and shot back.

That’s when the gunman fled the scene.

The brother told investigators that the intruder’s gun had a silencer and possibly a flashlight attached to the handgun, according to a report from the Richmond Times Dispatch.

Investigators are still piecing together the entire scene with information from Sultani’s brother.
Sultani was taken to Johnston-Willis Hospital and transferred to VCU Medical Center before he died as a result of his injuries.
Officers do not believe this was a random act.

When officers arrived, they found 27-year-old Farzad Sultani, who lived at the residence, had been shot by an intruder.
Sultani was taken to Johnston-Willis Hospital and transferred to VCU Medical Center before he died as a result of his injuries.

If you have information that could help police, call Chesterfield County Police Department at 804-748-1251 or Crime Solvers at 804-748-0660.
First... this story leaves a bit to be desired.

I have received extensive handgun training. Nobody attaches a flashlight to a handgun, and no person knowledgeable on the subject would suggest this. Rather what you use is a posture similar to closed gate in Sanchin, or - closer yet - the finishing position of Kanshiwa kata.

Image

What impresses me is that this technique isn't typical of the ghetto firearm postures you see on Teevee.

Image

That photo very much was meant to be tongue-in-cheek (or hands on balls). If you understand how a pistol works, you'd know that you couldn't hit a barn door with a pistol held in that orientation. I'll explain more if anyone is interested. Those who have had proper training though understand the physics.

A proper pistol-with-flashlight posture is something that's taught to LEOs. My training came from an instructor who had multiple levels of classes for LEOs and prison guards. He was the kind of fellow who would be sent out when "a very bad man" escaped from prison.

Drug deal gone wrong? I'm thinking not so much. These guys were serious, and they had sophisticated training. And you don't see silencers on street guns in central Virginia.

- Bill
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Re: Why awareness and the 2nd amendment are our friends

Post by Glenn »

And how is your bracket doing Bill? Mine always does very well when Kentucky does well. :wink:

Mythbusters tested the accuracy of the various styles of holding handguns used by Hollywood. Not surprisingly the so-called "gangsta" style in your second picture scored the lowest. I cannot find the entire test of all styles at the moment, but here is the gangsta style part of the test which includes a pretty good slow-motion view of why it does not work:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOocXYhUfl8

Here are the results of all the testing:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MythBuster ... rm_Fashion
Bill Glasheen wrote: Drug deal gone wrong? I'm thinking not so much. These guys were serious, and they had sophisticated training. And you don't see silencers on street guns in central Virginia.
Yep, as I said before it does seem he (or someone in the house) was targeted for a reason (unless the intruder had the wrong house).
Glenn
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Bill Glasheen
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Re: Why awareness and the 2nd amendment are our friends

Post by Bill Glasheen »

Glenn wrote:And how is your bracket doing Bill? Mine always does very well when Kentucky does well. :wink:
I won my office pool when I participated two years ago. There were over 100 entrants. You may remember who won that year...

I didn't enter this year. But as I said, Obama's bracket was stupid. Michigan State beating Louisville in the final game? Not so much.
Glenn wrote:Yep, as I said before it does seem he (or someone in the house) was targeted for a reason (unless the intruder had the wrong house).
Well I'm going with Occam's Razor here.

Let's see now...
  • Entering a home using tactics taught in law enforcement (flashlight with pistol approach pictured above).
    ...
  • Silencers on gun(s) - in a newer neighborhood of suburban central Virginia.
    ...
  • Resident in home responds with his own handgun.
    ...
  • Residents were from Afghanistan.
Drug dealers? Low probability.

"Radical Islam" involved in some way? Higher probability. The victim was laid to rest at the local Islamic Center. International involvement? Not out of the question. It's worth mentioning that some of the 9/11 hijackers got their drivers' licenses in Virginia before the state's DMV tightened up its process. Now you need to present a valid birth certificate any time you want a license.

- Bill
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