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As I was getting ready to post this question, I realized that it could be posted in at least 5 forums...Since that wasn't practical, I went with my first inclination.

I just came home from an intesting seminar. It was on preparing for possible service disruptions associated with Y2K. It's more than electricity, banking, gas, food and water delivery. There are all sorts of supporting systems that could go wrong.

Sometimes it seems that we're told more spin than truth. For instance...

Recently the FAA did a test at the Denver airport of their Y2K readiness. It was declared a major success. Well, today I found out more information abot that test... The FAA has identified the systems they deem to be Mission Critical. They labeled 222 systems as mission critical. Their Denver test tested 6 mission critical systems, for 4 hours, using 2 planes. Based on this 6 system test they declared themselves "Ready"! And the national news ate it up!

Their back up plan is to ground aircraft until the systems are working again. What kind of economic impact could that cause? (and that's just one industry) Where do they think they will find the good systems...if they don't have them at the end of the year? How long could that take? I'm begining to think that some of these systems will need more than just turning them off and on again.

Should we as M.A.s be adjusting our training more towards dealing with an upset populace... afterall many of us have families and responsibilities to them... not just to bring home the bacon but to care for them in all sorts of adversity.

I don't know how bad it will be... I hope it will be nothing more than a small huricane...but the possibility exists (because of embedded system), that it will be worse.

So the question is, for the next 6 months, should we give more place to practical self-defense techniques?

Rick Liebespach

[This message has been edited by RickLiebespach (edited 05-15-99).]

Rich ,

Timely post ! Mas Ayoob of LFI wrote that in the US riots can occur during brownouts and people stab each other for cutting ahead in service station lines during gasoline shortages ! Remember gas station attendants wearing guns on their hips in recent past ?

The problem I see here is that even if nothing serious happens , people still think it will and some will act as flaming paranoids causing disruptions too numerous to foresee !

We might well see hoarding at supermarkets , gas stations and the like for basic commodities! Unlike the rest of the world , America has never faced serious shortages and some people may well resort to desperate measures up to and including riots !

Some experts do foresee some major civil disruptions !

So what to do : You could develop the mindset of a "soft core survivalist" and stockpile two or three months worth of food and liquids as well as basic medications and prescriptions ; plenty of canned goods ; a small generator and fuel supply !

Then all serious survivalists recommend firearms and plenty of ammunition ! A 12 gauge shotgun ; a caliber .22 rifle and a handgun ! Riots or mob violence ? Maybe not , but it has happened before , so why discount the possibility ! Mas Ayoob writes that personal dangers in moments of uncertainties are greatly increased ! He notes that in the riots of the 60's and 70's the stores less likely to be looted were the ones with the owners / managers waiting inside with firearms ready ! Remember Los Angeles ?

< So the question is, for the next 6 months, should we give more
place to practical self-defense techniques?> [ Rich]

" Thus there is no compelling reason NOT to bring oneself to a level of preparation that includes stockpiling food and medicine and guns and ammunition " { MAS AYOOB}

Any thoughts ?



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Van Canna

Van sensei: Why a .22 rifle and not something more 'serious'? How about a .22 and a 30-30 or 30-06.........

Rich

Mas Ayoob writes that the hard core survivalist group recommends military style assault rifles for intimidation purpose { such as an AR-15} __ [ one slung across your shoulders would make someone think twice ] and for repelling a gang of looters ! However , a 12 gauge repeating shotgun at short range is even more formidable !

The .22 caliber is the main stay of America's firearms ; it can be used to shoot small game for the pot ; women are not afraid to shoot it because it doesn't kick , and .22 caliber ammo is one of the most stable items of barter !

Personally I would add a high power rifle , such as an M-1 Garand in 30-06 !

The handgun should be a .45 caliber !


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Van Canna

Y2K. If a federal agency says there's not going to be a problem, expect them.

In terms of Denver, If the FAA was just running through software validation and verification, you can do a heck of a lot of software testing in 4 hours, esp. if it is all working.

If the software is truly robust OO (like FAA software should be) then it is not necessary to run every app on every plane on every mission critical test.

Some of the anticipated major software problems that can and will affect us when 999 goes to 000 are electrical brownouts, auto failuers, business failures, amd military problems. Along with squrilling-away guns and food, forethought should be also given to staying warm (it can get cold in the north in January), gathering wampum, and possibly investing in a small portable electrical generator. Remember the Blizzard of 78, or Hurricane Carol in '54 Van? Even only a few days of no electricity and nothing to do can cause strange personalities to become obvious. Better a little extra than not enough.

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Allen - [email]uechi@ici.net">uechi@ici.net</A> - <A HREF="http://www.uechi-ryu.org[/email]

Van: I was thinking of the M1 carbine as it is somewhat smaller and lighter. I've had a Winchester lever action 30-30 for years. It is a good brush gun but not really good at long distances. Still, the ammo is readily available and has good knockdown power.

My first gun was a used Remington bolt action tube fed .22 purchased used over 30 years ago for $20. What a great rifle. Reliable, accurate, inexpensive to use (I shop the sales and purchase .22LR by the brick of 500 usually for under $10). And you are correct, my wife has no problem using it. My son learned to shoot with it. One reason that years ago I purchased the Ruger single six was that it used what the rifle used.

Shotgun - I have an Ithica pump (with a slug barrel as well for deer hunting when I lived in Ohio). Reading the variuos authors, it is either the best or worst self defense type to have. I cannot remember the particular source, but one author said a pump is simple, reliable....... Another said that under stress, a person is likely to 'short pump' and eject the spent round but not load in a new shell. Any thoughts? A double barrel, great for skeet, is a terrible self defense weapon as it is too limited in capacity. Also, one author recommended 20 gauge over 12 as it takes less time to fire and re acquire the target and fire again.
Again, any thoughts?

Regards, Rich

Rich ,

The M-1 .30 cal. Carbine 's stopping power is not even marginal ! The 30/30 lever actions are not 'fighting guns' !

The only calibers to think of for defense are the .223 ; the .308 and the 30-06 ! The only action to think about is the semi-auto ; the only rifles to think about are the battle rifles for capacity and reliability ! The Ruger mini-14 in .223 cal. Is an excellent choice ! Lots of police use it ! I like the AR-15 in .223 cal for its intimidation factor !

The 12 gauge shotgun is the more powerful and versatile and the easiest to get shells for ! As you say the pump will be short stroked under stress ; the best bet is a benelli or a beretta semiauto in police configuration [riot guns] !




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Van Canna

Hello Anthony,

I remember reading some years back that the .223 was a makeover of the 22-250, a famous varmit rifle. The 22-250 has a FLAT trajectory with a higher muzzle velocity than the .223, and I think (memory's fading) there were chamber pressure problems in the newly born .223, and the angle on the chamfer (fading real fast) was changed because of those problems.

One reason for the introduction of the .223 was pure economics. Also, the military version was not designed correctly.

The .308 cartidge is a scaled-down, though not by much, version of the 30-06 cartridge, one of the best all-around big game cartridges known to man. The casing on the .308 is almost identical to the 30-06, with the main difference that the cartridge itself is a slight bit shorter than the 30-06, thereby capable of holding less powder resulting in a lower muzzle velocity.

Both the .308 and 30-06 are higher-power than the 30-30, an excellent deer and black-bear brush-gun. With all this hoopla about possibly loosing the right to own semi-automatic rifles, a 30-30 lever-action could be a good choice to have if you live in a thickly wooded area (or thickly congested).

I wouldn't give you a plug-nickle for a Mini-14, The innards of one fell right into my hands once as I belly-flopped onto the ground and the magazine made contact with the earth. A cheap rifle and good shooter to carrry in the gun rack of your pickup truck, but as far as I'm concerned you can't get rough with it.


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Allen - [email]uechi@ici.net">uechi@ici.net</A> - <A HREF="http://www.uechi-ryu.org[/email]

[This message has been edited by Allen M. (edited 05-16-99).]

Trade that Mini in...

You are ex-military, so you know the difference between .223 and .308.

The 30-30 is a good brush gun. I wouldn't shoot at a deer past 75 yds or at a bear past 25 yds with it. Just a rule-of-thumb; been there.

[This message has been edited by Allen M. (edited 05-16-99).]

The 5.56 mm [ .223] is used extensively by elite swat teams and it comes close to an optimal light defense rifle caliber for survival use at moderate ranges ! Up to 300 yards it is very flat shooting ; negligible recoil and reasonable stopping power at reasonable ranges [ 300 yds] !

The .308 caliber is superbly accurate to 1000 yards , although its remaining energy at that range is not overwhelming ! One of the best combat rifles for this caliber is the Beretta B-M 59 ! Maximum 'effective range ' is usually 500 yards !

The 30-30 lever action is worth having because of the short lightweight rifles and because in many backwoods country stores the 30-30 may be the only rifle cartridge to be found on the shelves ! It should be limited to a maximum of 150 yds !

I agree with Allen on losing the mini-14 ; Either an AR-15 or Ak-47 in 223 cal. Will save the day !


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Van Canna

Thank you for the help, Van. If I was up on these things today I could have said something similar.

I never thought of the 30-30 as a people gun (one in which to shoot people with). 'Shoulder' is the word I was looking for, where the cartridge goes from a narrow neck to a wide body, not chamfer.

<hr>

Anthony,

The AK-47 cartridge is 30 calibre and has stopping power similar to the 30-30. The AK-47 cartridge was designed radically different than the 30-30 and even looks strange, while the 30-30 cartrige was not designed for use in automatic weapons as there were none in the 1800s (here come the gattling gun).

If you are planning for the end of the world, Anthony, then remember that through history those who have had the most modern weapons with the most firepower were victors. Even magnifying glasses are good weapons.
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Allen - [email]uechi@ici.net">uechi@ici.net</A> - <A HREF="http://www.uechi-ryu.org[/email]

[This message has been edited by Allen M. (edited 05-23-99).]

I'm going to give into temptation once more...

I really find the direction on this thread a little discouraging. I'm sure it's not intended this way but one message I get from all of this is that what we study is inadequate for self-defense... if things were to go in the worse case senario direction (which I personally don't expect). Granted there's no block for a speeding bullet, but I didn't expect you gutys to abandon ship so quickly.

[This message has been edited by RickLiebespach (edited 05-22-99).]

Hi Rick-san:

I'm glad that you continue to post your questions and views on these forums - as a relative newcomer to the Uechi-ryu community - you provide fresh insights that provide valuable input to the discourse.

Preparation for a natural disaster is a form of self-defense - to my way of thinking anyway - and indeed the ramifications of Y2K may approximate some of the effects of natural disasters or other major interruptions in this comfortable life we have become accustomed to. How to prepare and protect ourselves?

When considering the potential problems that may occur with the advent of Y2K - images conjure in our heads of armageddon and anarchy - followed by a survival instinct that brings thoughts of protecting home and hearth - and in the face of uncertainty - thoughts turn to what could be a worst case scenario - perhaps involving a lack of law and order - hence the consiseration of the best types of defense - which means firearms to many.

I believe that it was John Thurston who said that history shows that the possesors of the greatest firepower are the ones who win the wars - and when contemplating anarchy we contemplate a war of sorts I suppose.

So - are we a bunch of cynics who believe our years of study in the martial arts means nothing? I don't think so. I would rather face the uncertainties of the street or even armageddon WITH my training than without it. But as this is a forum dedicated to realities, it forces us to confront just that - and the reality is that the best block in the world (other than not being there) is not going to be effective against a gun. No matter how fast or hard your strikes and "techniques-o-doom" (copyright by doctor X) they will not be faster or powerful than a bullet. So we need to consider that in the reality of a life or death struggle - we may very well be faced with this type of situation.

A point that needs to be made - in the face of the quest for the almighty dollar and commercialism of the martial arts in general - is that no matter how much hype is placed on "this style is better than all the other styles" or - "you'll never feel scared again" or "improve your child's grades, get in shape, and protect your family" (I'm sure you've seen the commercials - a local karate school in my area airs them on tv regularly with those exact quotes) we need to do what we can to decry that type of false security - and make the point that martial arts training is NOT going to be all that you need to save your life! Neither is the biggest baddest gun! It is what is often the thrust of many of the posts on this forum - the cultivation of "mindset" and where and how yours is in any given moment!

For the fools who wander through life in a cloud and a daze - believing that their fourth degree camouflage colored take-your-do belt is a talisman against all evil - this is tantamount to a sin against humanity - pulling in the sheep and selling them a bill of goods. As martial artists we have a responsiblity to the integrity of our art - and cheapening it by cultivating these illusions is something we need to take a stand against - the same as we object to innappropriate material in our schools, defective products, false advertising, government overspending, fraud, and injsutice. No, we can't change the world - and every BS dojo out there will not be closed as a result of our objections on these pages, but if we can wake up a few people with some hard hitting reality, then all the better. Perhaps a student who reads these pages will let go of a misconception that if he studies really really hard, he will be a match against that thug who sticks a knife in his back and wants to take his car from him as he enters the parking garage. Maybe s/he will think about the situation BEFORE walking out to the garage, consider the worst case scenario and prepare accordingly. For some this means packing a gun, but, even with all the gun-talk on this forum lately - it doesn't mean that that a gun is the ONLY reality - the reality is to at least CONSIDER that a gun will be involved in a life or death situation - and that your patented wauke block with your Okinawan stamped parchement certificate with the gold-embossed dragon isn't going to do you a damn bit of good!

This isn't to say that what we do and practice so hard is useless - I could go on about increased awareness, focus, breath control, agility, etc. etc. that may indeed help you in a serious situation - but the point of the "reality" bent is that karate is NO guarantee!

So - this post is getting long enough - but I just wanted to 1) thank you for your comments and input - they are valuable to the discussion! and 2) try to explain why some of the realists on this forum sound the way they do - not to decry all benefits of karate - but only to focus more on how some falsely believe that that is all they need...

How far you choose to go is a decision you will make based on your own definition of mindset, your personal moral standards and philosphies of life - and what reality and the consideration of it means to you. It is a personal decision we all must make - and hopefully these pages will spur one to consider this decision before faced with a crack-crazed maniac holding a sawed off shotgun.

Peace,
Lori

Hi Rick,

You wrote < but one message I get from all of
this is that what we study is inadequate for self-defense >



One thing you will find__ out there , and which is really comical , is that a very large number of high ranking 'senseis' were laid bare in their inadequacies and got knocked off their pedestals by the hard hitting realities of this forum ! In turn , their students were mentally keeled over by the domino effect ! Some students went so far as totally dropping out of the martial arts picture because they could not face up to reality !

The people who got slammed off their perch try to get back on by holding " Shrill sessions " at their dojos decrying the messages of this forum , puffing up their chests , hitting the makiwaras full power and lamenting that the contributors to this page don't know "real karate" ; that their 'lineage' is questionable , thus the reason why " they talk this way" ; that if "they" had studied under the 'true masters' they would be very "confident" in their "self defense skills" etc. !

These are the 'enlightened senseis' who instinctively buy and wear their black belts in extra length /strength quality because they sense the day will come when that belt will be used by their loving students /peers to wrap around the coffins lowering their asses into the ground ! [ check out the length of their belts ]

That is the true essence of denial ; of the people who do immense justice to this quote " WHEN I WAS YOUNGER , MY MOUTH USED TO WRITE CHECKS MY ASS COULDN'T COVER " { Indian Mike }

If in fact you have been following this forum for a while , I am very disappointed that you have not yet understood the message that karate , as good as it is , and it is very good for many different reasons , still remains only __ a component part __of the total force continuum concept needed for survival in today's world !

Even absent chaos / riots etc. which you don't believe will happen , and which may not indeed occur , keep in mind that if we are ever involved in a fight worth fighting [ I don't mean a face slapping contest with our next door neighbor ] , we will probably be up against some sociopath street fighter , whose only fighting experience has been with fighting itself and is most likely backed up by a weapon ! His opponent { Prey} __ read us karate guys __ will respond with ' pretend fighting' which is all most of us have had real experience with !

Peyton Quinn writes that a seasoned street fighter [ the one you will probably come up against] is counting on your momentary denial for his assured victory ; he will make you choke and chances are that any " karate moves" you make will be of the flailing type and will set you up for the next power shot that will bust your nose and fracture your jaw or split your head open ! " But I won't choke " you say ; " My sensei tells me I have mushin" Yea right !

This weekend the Uechi world saw a vivid demonstration of only a small portion of street fighting as displayed by the formidable Josh Wiseman , Brockton dojo's third generation student , at The Uechi world championships ! It was nothing short of chilling for some people to watch ! I knew he would probably not win because of his different 'mind set' pitted against a set of 'rules' , yet he taught us all a very important lesson of what real fighting is likely to be on the streets of America today !

You said < but I didn't expect you gutys to abandon ship so quickly.>


Josh is a real accommodating and personable karate-ka who turns into a street assassin on the floor! If anyone wishes to test their great self defense theories against him , just let me know and I can arrange for some friendly matches at our Brockton dojo !

My idea is to dim all the lights down low in the labyrinthine Brockton dojo , either one or two of you guys will be invited to walk the dojo in exploration and then Josh will emerge from the shadows just like in the street ! We might all learn something ! We need more of that to knock some sense in the "cocoon fed" elitists !

Let me know if any of you " gutsy" are interested !

Peace ,




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Van Canna

Van Sensei,

Josh is awesome physical specimen, endowed I suspect with the correct mindset before even training. The training in grappling and striking skills make him that much "deadlier." In these forums, you advocate the "force continuum." Well, the upper end of the continuum is exactly what one would need to face an opponent like him. Even then, one may not survive... You can only die with some pleasure knowing that you may have taken him to hell with you. We are back to mindset again, aren't we...?

david