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PostPosted: Mon Jul 05, 1999 6:06 pm 
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Location: Richmond, VA
To all: In the first full year of Richmond's new 'Project Exile' (using existing federal laws to prosecute criminals using handguns), the murder rate plunged 50%. Now, after the first 6 months of the second year, the murder rate has dropped another 20% and ALL violent crime has dropped. Also, Virginia just put into effect 'Virginia Exile' statewide, building on Richmond's success.

Law enforcement agencies are now visiting Richmond to see how it is done. The answer is simple: Prosecute relentlessly using EXISTING laws. No plea barganing. No Parole. Use a gun in a crime or be a felon caught with a gun and it is 5 years in the Federal Pen. And, the 5 years is added consecutively to any other sentance! The result is that the bad guys are no longer carrying their weapons around and arguments no longer escalate into shootouts.

Hmmm.... Prosecuting criminals. Enforcing existing laws. What a unique idea.

Oh, and by the way, since the inception of Virginia's relaxation of handgun permit issuance 5 years ago, not one person legally carrying a handgun has been convicted of a crime. That is ZERO out of hundreds of thousands. John Lott is right - More 'legal' guns, less crime.

Rich


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 05, 1999 8:28 pm 
Keep it up, Richmond. Set an example for the rest of the nation to follow. I love it.

I wonder how closely the crime rate is tied into the unemployment rate. I'll bet as soon as this economic boom is over, the crime rate will soar again. Hope carrying concealed weapons will continue to be allowed then.

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Allen - [email]uechi@ici.net">uechi@ici.net</A> - <A HREF="http://www.uechi-ryu.org[/email]


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 05, 1999 11:23 pm 
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Joined: Thu Jan 21, 1999 6:01 am
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Location: LA, CA, USA
Except for a very small number of high profile criminals like Dillinger and Bonny and Clyde, I understand that crime did not rise appreciably after the Great Depession hit. While some might argue that economic downturns ipso facto cause crime to rise, I don't know if the evidence supports this.

Scaramouche


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 06, 1999 12:06 pm 
Scaramouche,

The country was a lot different in those days, and so were the people.

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Allen - [email]uechi@ici.net">uechi@ici.net</A> - <A HREF="http://www.uechi-ryu.org[/email]


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 06, 1999 3:26 pm 
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Joined: Thu Jan 21, 1999 6:01 am
Posts: 100
Location: LA, CA, USA
Modern U.S. history was one of the two fields my master's degree focused on. I have done extensive study on the period of the Great Depression. What you say is known to me. I have, as yet, still not heard any solid evidence that directly ties economic upturns to a drop in crime, or economic downturns to rises in crime.

Feel free to produce it, if you can.

Despite the fact that "the country was a lot different in those days, and so were the people," any intelligent and informed person can see very direct parallels between Prohibition, and the War on Drugs, for example. Certain things remain very much the same, and I can give other historical examples, if need be.

Scaramouche


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 1999 12:14 pm 
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Joined: Thu Oct 01, 1998 6:01 am
Posts: 244
Location: Marblehead, MA USA
Scaramouche,
A. That's very interesting about the irrelevance of the economic cycle to the crime rate. What would you attribute the recent(past ten years?) drop in crime to?
B. Prohibition and the War on Drugs. So obvious a parallel and I never put them together.?.
C. I actually am interested in some other examples.
D. I studied the Great Depression myself after completing my thesis in preparation for my own book "How to Become a Real Estate Investor in 12 Tough Lessons". The most important lesson I took from it was how the Landlords that survived were the ones who not only adjusted their rents to a declining market but also who went to a weekly rent cycle seeming to make it 1. More afordable ($50 vs $200), 2. Tying it to weekly pay periods, and 3. Tying it to the Court calenders which time proceedings to: 1 cycle of nonpayment, 1 cycle of notices, 1 cycle to evict, giving them the edge over monthly Landlords.
C. I've digressed pretty far but I'm still interested in your examples Scar.

http://www.massrealestate.net


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 1999 1:16 pm 
Scaramouche,

Are you saying that economic downturns have no bearing on the increase in crime?

I see the war on drugs far different than Prohibition in the sense that Prohibition was a national problem whereas the drug problem we are facing today is international.

Also, as far as I am concerned, most major cities today are sewer-pits of crime. I believe the concentration of crime in the cities is a phenomenon which has exploded since the 60s and having noplace else to go invaded the burbs. I am not educated in urban warfare as you, and even though certain things remain the same, crime is much more concentrated today and most do not escape its vi[s or c]e-like jaws.

I believe crime intensity exists now as never before. Kind of like one rotten apple destroying all the others. And the 'lull' the media relates to us is either a temporary one or one in which he true numbers are hidden from us. Are there any particular groups responsible for the crime wavesd in this great nation today, or is the problem spread equally across gender, financial status, race, and religion? I really don't know, so this was not a sarcastic or biased remark (and aimed at no one and at no group(s), so don't read into what's not there), but I often wonder if the where the roots of the problems lie are known and with whom these roots lie then only can those problems be dealt with effectively. I ask for your knowledge and opinions on these issues.

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Allen - [email]uechi@ici.net">uechi@ici.net</A> - <A HREF="http://www.uechi-ryu.org[/email]

[This message has been edited by Allen M. (edited 07-07-99).]


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 1999 12:47 am 
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Joined: Thu Mar 11, 1999 6:01 am
Posts: 3754
Location: Richmond, VA
Kevin: New gun laws are not the answer, it is the enforcement of EXISTING gun laws that is making such an impact. We are talking about cutting the murder rate in half in one year!

I am personnally against any new gun laws. There are too many as it is. Virginia's reasonable personal carry law has had added to the positive change as the bad guys are afraid of running into an armed victim. Also, as you noted, the switch from cocaine to heroin is cited as one of the reasons that crime is down in Richmond. The druggies are much more mellow theses days.

Also a factor is the massive prison building the last governor implemented. Parole has been eliminated and the bad guys must do their time, gun involvement or not. The small percentage of the population that commits the largest number of crimes are being safely locked away. And there is a lot of room left for future cons.

An interesting article was in the Richmond OP-ED section yesterday. It was an AP sydicated column by Paul Haven entitled "Outstanding warrants aren't pursued". It seems the FBI lists 516,000 outstanding warrants for persons not being pursued. These include murderers, rapists, sexual predators and other assorted felons. Who knows how many crimes these people commit before they end up in jail (if ever) for some reason. Lets see, at 5 or 6 to a cell, we could lock them all up in Virginia.

Rich


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 1999 5:18 am 
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Rich, take a look around, violent crime is down EVERYWHERE! Why attribute it only to enforcement of gun laws in your state when this variable is not a factor in others states?

How about counting reduction in people on welfare with welfare reform?

How about a very strong economy and virtually non-exist unemployment rate?

How about the increased poplarity of cheap heroin versus cocaine and crack cocaine of the eighties and early nineties?

Criminals are generally stupid and don't expect to get caught. Why let a little thing like a threat of a jail term get in their way?

Kevin


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 13, 1999 6:47 pm 
Scaramouche,

This whole crime scene business is cyclical like the tide. Sometimes it's up and sometimes it's down.

What I wanted to point out, and somehow it got lost, is that when more people are out of work and hanging in bars and on the streetcorners, crime goes up, whether reported or not. I have the firm belief that an idle mind is the devil's workshop; and for the sake of this thread, nothing more and nothing less.

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Allen - [email]uechi@ici.net">uechi@ici.net</A> - <A HREF="http://www.uechi-ryu.org[/email]


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 14, 1999 1:58 am 
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Joined: Thu Jan 21, 1999 6:01 am
Posts: 100
Location: LA, CA, USA
" is that when more people are out
of work and hanging in bars and on the streetcorners, crime goes up, whether reported or not."

Allen M

If it isn't reported, how could you possibly know for sure? As I mentioned, crime did not go up appreciably in the U.S. during the greatest economic downturn of the twentieth century.

As a scholar and someone with an analytical mind I like to base my opinion on facts. Life is in some ways far easier for those who don't, I suppose.

Scaramouche


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 14, 1999 3:17 am 
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How about this argument :

In the 60's it was believed that if we dealt with poverty , unemployment ,lack of housing etc. the social conditions that "caused" crime ___ crime would be controlled ! So money was spent on social programs and social engineering ! Much less was spent on imprisonment and law enforcement ! Trillions spent on welfare ..and for what ! Crime soared ..between 1960 and 1969 violent crime went up 200% !

Crime dramatically lowered property values in inner cities ; uncontrolled crime destroyed businesses trying to survive in tough markets !

Crime and fear of crime drive investment decisions !

Crime causes poverty !


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Van Canna


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 14, 1999 5:32 am 
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Joined: Thu Jan 21, 1999 6:01 am
Posts: 100
Location: LA, CA, USA
Hello all,

originally I argued that in many ways people were not so different (by that I more or less meant "morally better") than they are today. I have put quite a bit of thought into this, and using exaples I intend to show that there was some serious human corruption and evil in the early part of the century I alluded to. Since I mentioned both the Great Depression and Prohibition, I'll focus more or less on the period from 1917 to 1941.

First off, I'll admit that some things were clearly better. Many more people could leave their homes unlocked, for example, and certain sorts of crime were less common. I suspect that far fewer children were born out of wedlock.

On the other hand, if a woman was raped, she would probably not report it. Being raped could destroy a woman's reputation, and in "his word against hers" situations the woman would probably be condemed as a spurned and vindictive liar, or someone who "asked for it."

If a man beat his wife, well, her options were often very limited. Society did not generally support women leaving their husbands, and if she did she might well be judged an unfit mother. Divorce was more common by the 1920s than it had been previously, but there was still great social disapproval toward anyone who chose to end their marriage, even if it was a horrible one. If I was well versed in the history of marriage or the history of the family, I suspect that I could describe much worse.

If you were not white, there was tremendous predjudice. The Ku Klux Klan was huge in the 1920s, and 40,000 of them marched on Washington. Klan membership was not just a southern or rural oddity, but the group had a very large membership in midwestern and even eastern cities. Southern California also had a strong Klan presence.

Lynching was common, and at certain points an average of two blacks or more were hanged every week. Those of Native American, Mexican, Asian and other non European ancestry also suffered under exclusionary laws. Some could not become citizens, some could not own land, most could not legally marry whites. Most could live in highly segregated areas. Violence and predjudice against non-whites was very common. Most non-Whites could never hope to attend a university, since many would not admit them. Higher education was also far beyond the means of most Whites, but non-Whites had far more limited opportunities.

Even some Whites suffered predjudice. If you were Catholic you were still subject to considerable discrimination, and if you were Jewish it was even worse. To a lesser degree predjudice by one protestant group toward another was one of the other ugly aspects of the period.

Hate in various other very strong forms were not uncommon, and the radio priest Father Coughlin who railed against Jews and others had a huge following during the 1930s. There was also substantial membership in (forgive my lack of details here) one or more groups modeled on European fascist parties. Henry Ford, a rabid anti-semite, championed the Protocals of the Elders of Zion, a forged publication purporting to describe a massive Jewish conspiracy. Other national leaders admired Hitler (at least prior to December of 1941), and spoke highly of his regime.

I could elaborate on the impact of Prohibition, such as the fact that it caused a huge illegal trade and led to the consolidation of organized crime under the Italians (with some Jewish allies). The mobs became incredibly powerful and violent, and there were many terrible reprecusions. Corruption, an increased lack of respect for the law, drive-by shootings, and a host of other problems also sprang from the illegal alcohol trade.

Topic change -- As for recent apparent drops in crime rates, I can only speculate. Demographics plays a big part (aging population) I suspect. Concealed carry laws. Three strikes and other mandatory imprisonment laws. Better security systems. Less reporting of the crimes that actually happen. Possible better economic times (though I have yet to see supporting data and have seen the Great Depression counter example). Pick some combination of these, or others that I left out. I have no strong opinion here, except for the demographics one.

Allan M: If you think that cities are sewer pits now, you should read up on what they were like during the last few decades of the nineteenth century.

Scaramouche


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