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 Post subject: Re: Etc.
PostPosted: Sun Nov 26, 2006 7:42 pm 
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JOHN THURSTON wrote:
Even given the fact that i am generally conservative, I do not feel we can force a military solution in the event of an Iraqi civil war.


I'm not completely sure what a civil war means in this circumstance. I assume the Kurds are in good shape in the north and will simply try to isolate themselves. Furthermore, the Shiites are in good shape in the south. How long can the Sunnis last if they want to make a "civil war" of it? It seems to me that the Sunnis could have put in with us once Saddam was overthrown. Instead, they have chosen a path which will end badly for them, at best as a disenfranchised minority and at worst dead. Maybe it was fomented by Al Qaeda, but once the fire has started, the burning match is no longer important.

So what does a "civil war" between Sunnis and Shiites look like? I hardly think a comparison to Vietnam or Korea is helpful, as these quickly became conflicts between well-defined, opposed governments. There is no such organization here. Looks more like Lebanon. Sure you like the bunker idea?

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 Post subject: Bunker
PostPosted: Sun Nov 26, 2006 8:03 pm 
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Every thing depends on the Iraqis, Mike..

The 'super bunker' is already there in the base in Baghdad.

You are right, it is a good opportunity for the Kurds.

There seems to be some minimal movement on the diplomatic front.

But, yes, if a full scall sunni/shia civil war breaks out, Bagdad will look like Beirut when Reagan sent the marines in. a perilous situation.

As much as i'd like to see us out at this point, i guess a cautious wait and see approach.

I am trying just to set down what I see and feel about the war.

Not trying to prove any points.

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 Post subject: Re: Bunker
PostPosted: Sun Nov 26, 2006 8:10 pm 
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JOHN THURSTON wrote:
I am trying just to set down what I see and feel about the war.

Not trying to prove any points.


Me, too.

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 Post subject: Truly
PostPosted: Sun Nov 26, 2006 9:06 pm 
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I guess we are reduced to watching.

Iran's President has offered to assist in restoring calm to Iraq.

Not a bad option compared to what we have been looking st.


JT

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 12:09 am 
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Mike,

"I'm not completely sure what a civil war means in this circumstance. I assume the Kurds are in good shape in the north and will simply try to isolate themselves. Furthermore, the Shiites are in good shape in the south. How long can the Sunnis last if they want to make a "civil war" of it?"

I don't know if you are really looking for a definition here, but I think the problem here is that we are using the UN defined borders and not thinking of the people. The Kurds in the north may not be doing much now, but they are certainly in the mix of things. They have been battling for atonomy for a long time as we all know, but they are not just in northern Iraq. They reside in Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and in other regional countries. There push for a Kurdistan in well founded. They will simply wait for the right opportunity. As for the Shiites, it is not a question of whether or not they are in good shape in the south, but who they would have support from in the region (i.e. Jordan, Palistines, Saudis, etc.). And when all is said and done, the minority Sunnis would undoubtedly receive help from Syria in my opinion. So, civil war is self explanitory.


Quote:
It seems to me that the Sunnis could have put in with us once Saddam was overthrown. Instead, they have chosen a path which will end badly for them, at best as a disenfranchised minority and at worst dead. Maybe it was fomented by Al Qaeda, but once the fire has started, the burning match is no longer important.


I agree with your assessment here.

Quote:
So what does a "civil war" between Sunnis and Shiites look like? I hardly think a comparison to Vietnam or Korea is helpful, as these quickly became conflicts between well-defined, opposed governments. There is no such organization here. Looks more like Lebanon. Sure you like the bunker idea?


I agree with this too. This will be multi-fractional at best until one side (probably the Shiites) get the best of the fight.

mike


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 Post subject: Nasty Fellow
PostPosted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 2:38 am 
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Hello From the Super Bunker:

I appreciate the input on this thread.

The Kurds, as stated, inside Turkey, so to speak, have been fighting a losing battle of autonomy for year as Mike pointed out.

Iraq is a country made from lines drawn in a desert.

If every minority in the country decides to fight its way for autonomy or control it might mean a multi factional break up of Iraq.

As noted, it is not clear whether this fits into the definition of a Civil War.

At some point trying to squeeze everything in Iraq into understandable 'little boxes' just doesn't work.

In reading a book set in Vietnam (i know Mike-a diffuse historical note) a new Maring Lieutenant is asked by an in country LT--"what are they teaching in New River these days"

The newbie replied "Korea'.

Always preparing for the wrong war is somewhat inevitable given the varying scenarios.

Saddam was a nasty fellow and we can see, I guess, that it took a nasty fellow indeed to hold Iraq together.

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