Moderator: Bill Glasheen
James Carville wrote:You can shoot five Bin Ladens, you can save 10,000 banks and 20 car companies, even pass the most sweeping legislation in modern American history; if people don't think that you are connected to their lives and are fighting for their interests they will vote your tush out of office in a nano-second. For historical reference see Winston Churchill election of 1945 and President George H.W. Bush in 1992.
Bill Glasheen wrote:It's the economy, stupid!!!
Jason Rees wrote:Hello Culture Wars, writ large
Glenn wrote:It's interesting that the Republicans are selecting a candidate who is lacking experience in the same areas for which Obama was so heavily criticized in 2008, namely foreign affairs and military.
mhosea wrote:Yes, but which candidate should the party have chosen based on these considerations? And if there really was none, why is that and where are these candidates, if any exist?
Stevie B wrote:STEVIE B FOR DICTATOR AND CHIEF!!!!!
Glenn wrote:Romney will have a hard time repeating Clinton's success given the steady improvement of the economy under the current president's helm. *** If the current economic trends continue until election time, status quo will give the President the advantage
The jobless rate was 8.1% in April, mostly because many frustrated job seekers dropped out of the labor force and thus are no longer considered unemployed.
***
The economy turned in another lackluster month for job creation in April, with 115,000 net new jobs, 130,000 in private business (less 15,000 fewer in government). The unemployment rate fell a tick to 8.1%, albeit mainly because the labor force shrank by 342,000. This relates to what is arguably the most troubling trend in the April jobs report, which is the continuing decline in the share of working-age Americans who are in the labor force.
The civilian labor participation rate, as it's known, fell again in April to 63.6%. That's the second decline in a row and the lowest rate since December 1981. That's right—more than 30 years ago, longer than Mark Zuckerberg has been alive. The nearby chart shows the disturbing round trip the workforce participation rate has taken since 1980 and the precipitous drop in the last three years.
Glenn wrote:I think we should start a write-in campaign for Bill!
Jason Rees wrote:Coincidence?
Bill Glasheen wrote:You can't come into one of these discussions with a drive-by line like that and not support it with data and/or references.
The jobless rate was 8.1% in April, mostly because many frustrated job seekers dropped out of the labor force and thus are no longer considered unemployed.
The economy turned in another lackluster month for job creation in April, with 115,000 net new jobs, 130,000 in private business (less 15,000 fewer in government). The unemployment rate fell a tick to 8.1%, albeit mainly because the labor force shrank by 342,000. This relates to what is arguably the most troubling trend in the April jobs report, which is the continuing decline in the share of working-age Americans who are in the labor force.
The civilian labor participation rate, as it's known, fell again in April to 63.6%. That's the second decline in a row and the lowest rate since December 1981. That's right—more than 30 years ago, longer than Mark Zuckerberg has been alive. The nearby chart shows the disturbing round trip the workforce participation rate has taken since 1980 and the precipitous drop in the last three years.
To hear most economists tell it, the prolonged recession has caused millions of Americans to leave the labor force.
Perhaps though there’s another story there. Maybe it’s just the baby boomers.
Baby boomers, the generation born between 1946 and 1964, started reaching the conventional retirement age, 65, last year. That would certainly have many of them leaving their jobs and heading toward the doors. It’s their exit from the labor force that could explain why the labor-force participation rate has fallen from 66% at the end of 2007 to near 63.9% today, a group of Barclays Capital economists argue in a new report.
According to the report, just a third of the drop in labor force participation came from those who still wanted a job—and only 15% of those folks are of prime working age, 25 to 54. So, the economists see “the possibility of a large and sudden return of previously discouraged job seekers to the labor force as remote.”
This would be good for the bearish holdouts on the economic recovery.
Those skeptics say the dropping unemployment rate mostly is from a drop in able-bodied people quitting the job search (and lowering labor force participation). And, they say, when the economy does pick back up, those folks will want back in. So, when they re-enter, the falling unemployment becomes the rising unemployment rate.
But if the Barclays economists are right, and the labor-force participation decrease is from baby boomers retiring, then we won’t see a large increase in labor force participation later. Or a rise in the unemployment rate.
Jason Rees wrote:"...steadily improving economy..."
ROTFLMAO!!!
Ok, yes, I know, the media by and large will be looking to make the economic outlook rosier as we get closer to the election... I just don't know that most Americans will believe it.
Glenn, Candidate Obama wasn't criticized for lack of experience in foreign policy or military matters... he was criticized for having absolutely no experience in ANYTHING!!!
What matters most is whether the constituencies that barely carried Candidate Obama to the Oval Office can be inspired to do so again. I'm betting not. Social Conservatives and gun owners will turn out in droves to bury the boogeyman. You won't see Blacks turn out in droves to keep Romney out of office, but you might see less bothering to vote for Obama a second time. The economy is not improving with the kind of numbers Obama will need to stay in office, either.
Glenn wrote:2) but more important at the moment is retiring baby boomers (baby boomers entering the workforce in the 1980s is also a contributing factor to the sharp growth in labor force participation that Bill commented on)
From the March 2 Forbes Magazine
American workers are increasingly planning to delay retirement. Among employed adults ages 50 to 61, 60 percent say they may have to delay their retirement because of the recession, according to a Pew Research Center telephone survey of 2,967 adults released today. And 35 percent of those age 62 and older say they’ve already pushed back their retirement date.
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