Right now gasoline prices are out of whack with reality. There is an 'emotional' premium in the cost right now that is adding 5 to 10% to the cost of the end user. While supplies are tight, there are no shortages.
To that point, unless you were a driver in 1973 during the first 'Arab oil embargo', you do not understand what a gas crisis really is. The price in constant dollars was about what it is today but getting gas was difficult, with long lines and many closed stations or reduced operating hours.
As it turned out, there never really was a crisis. Our very own government perceived one and slapped so many knee jerk controls on fuel that it simply was not getting to where it was needed. That created panic buying (topping of at every chance), hoarding, price gouging etc. 1973 is a good case study of our Feds not allowing the laws of supply and demand to function properly.
There was another embargo in 1979-80 that had a lesser effect but was similar in nature to the 1973 'crisis'. We learned a bit from 1973 and that softened the effect.
Today, with the feds talking a lot but really letting capitalistic principles work, there is fuel as needed, but emotionally priced. I'm certain that if left alone, the situation will solve itself!
Now, on to the economics of the hybrids. Yes, there is a reasonable payback if you drive a lot. But that is if you really get the advertised performance and mileage. Unfortunately, you do not. You will get one or the other.
A professional driver can maximize the MPG. Most will not. The reasons are that if you like to accelerate briskly, or drive 80 MPH (wind resistance goes up as a cube of speed), or accelerate more than you brake (not regenerating a lot of watts, thereby causing the gas engine to run more to keep the batteries charged), you will be flogging that poor little high revving engine out of its highest efficiency zone into a guzzling zone.
A large HP engine turning low rpms will use less fuel than a small engine spinnning at high revs. Internal friction and windage losses cube, greatly increasing the losses. Plus, wear and tear on the drive train parts will inrease with the rotational speed. High revving engines do not last as long a low revving engines. Period.
So, if owning a hybrid makes you feel good, buy one. Better yet, keep what you have, put your money into a 3 year CD, and drive the speed limit.
Rich
How expensive is gas?
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RACastanet
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Bill Glasheen
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Yes and no...if you like to accelerate briskly, or drive 80 MPH (wind resistance goes up as a cube of speed), or accelerate more than you brake (not regenerating a lot of watts, thereby causing the gas engine to run more to keep the batteries charged), you will be flogging that poor little high revving engine out of its highest efficiency zone into a guzzling zone.
You cannot accelerate more than you brake. Wish I could... What goes up must come down. What goes faster - in town - must go slower at the next stoplight. Indeed I am the classic case for a hybrid. I drive 20,000 miles per year around town dropping both sons off at their various places, then going to work, then coming back, then going to the gym, etc., etc. All that damned braking is going to waste. This way I get to regenerate it.
And you are wrong about the smaller engines, Rich.
* Smaller engines don't necessarily burn out faster. I got about 120,000 miles on two Plymoth Champs I owned. One I sold, and it was still running at 200 K when I bumped into the guy at DMV. The other was totaled in a wreck...
But we're talking about 1.4 and 1.6 liter engines. My last Mercury van had a 3 liter V6 in it. It has 160 K on it and it's still kicking. I can't part with it, even though I have a new van with 20 K on it. * Not all hybrids have smaller engines. About a third of the models out there use normal engines, and capture the braking energy with the hybrid engineering. The Lexus is one example, and it gets both more power and better gas mileage. What's to argue about that? Most people would pay an extra $3 K just for the 20% horsepower boost. The experimental Dodge Durango is the same prototype. They haven't (yet) come out with that model. Daimler Chrysler is instead going diesel (no surpise with Mercedes merger) and the Jeep Liberty is going to be the first to market.
It isn't just about being "green" and it isn't about short term savings either. There is a long term savings for the whole country if we gain energy self sufficiency and/or create a better free market by allowing our cars to run on more than one energy source. You have to think out of the box to see this.
What we need is leadership and vision in the oval office. I haven't seen that in a very, very long time. And I don't see any better alternative - today.
- Bill
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Bill said: 'You cannot accelerate more than you brake.'
Oh yes you can. Do you drive hard to every stop sign and then brake, or do you coast up to the stop sign or red light? The regen feature is not triggered during a coast stop, it is triggered when applying the brakes. Coasting is using up your kinetic energy. You have burned the fuel to get to speed, brake to soon and you need to burn more fuel.
The professional drivers accelerate slowly and coast to the max. Then brake. That is how they achieve the high listed MPG numbers. If you used just enough fuel to overcome friction and windage you are maxing out. However, eventually the batteries would become starved and the engine would be using power and fuel to keep them topped off.
GE is big in what is called the electric wheel used in the huge open pit mining trucks. They are hybrids and actually experienced a problem similar to the above. A huge amount of time and study determined that the drivers were coasting too much.
I have read a number of reports from drivers disappointed about their actual mileage performance. Had I known this thread was coming back I would have book marked them. The advertised MPG is not being achieved.
Bill said: '* Smaller engines don't necessarily burn out faster. I got about 120,000 miles on two Plymoth Champs I owned. One I sold, and it was still running at 200 K'
I fully expect all modern engines to last at least that long with a little maintenance. Even my 1974 MGB four banger is as smooth as can be without ever having an overhaul. Odometer says 97,000 miles but that could easily be the second time around. My 1994 Jeep four banger has 98,000 miles and uses absolutely no oil. I expect 200,000 out of both of them. However, I'd expect even more than that out of a reletively slow turning push rod V8.
But, engines wear out due to heat and friction. An engine turning 2,000 RPM at 70MPH is going to outlast one turning 2,500 or 3,000 or more at the same speed. The reason diesels last so long is that they are high torque, low revving machines. With any maintenance they will go 500,000 to a million miles. And they do.
Bill said: 'You have to think out of the box to see this.'
As for thinking out of the box, the hybrid is an incremental design. It is actually using old technology only new to automobiles. WW1 submarines and diesel electric locomotives in production since the 1930s have used hybrid technology. Also, refer to the mining trucks I mentioned above.
You like to quote Jack Welch, my old boss and arguably the best businessman of the 20th century. Jack hated incrementalism. People were fired for thinking in terms of 15 or 20% improvements. He wanted managers that always would swing for the fence. And it worked. GE revenues and profits increased 10 fold under his watch. If a manager took a big swing and missed, he got a second chance. If a manager was comfortable with incremental gains, he was 'refocused'.
So, I say go for the next great leap. Maybe it is fuel cells, maybe not. But I see hybrids as a largely PC incremental waste of R&D and manufacturing dollars.
Rich
Oh yes you can. Do you drive hard to every stop sign and then brake, or do you coast up to the stop sign or red light? The regen feature is not triggered during a coast stop, it is triggered when applying the brakes. Coasting is using up your kinetic energy. You have burned the fuel to get to speed, brake to soon and you need to burn more fuel.
The professional drivers accelerate slowly and coast to the max. Then brake. That is how they achieve the high listed MPG numbers. If you used just enough fuel to overcome friction and windage you are maxing out. However, eventually the batteries would become starved and the engine would be using power and fuel to keep them topped off.
GE is big in what is called the electric wheel used in the huge open pit mining trucks. They are hybrids and actually experienced a problem similar to the above. A huge amount of time and study determined that the drivers were coasting too much.
I have read a number of reports from drivers disappointed about their actual mileage performance. Had I known this thread was coming back I would have book marked them. The advertised MPG is not being achieved.
Bill said: '* Smaller engines don't necessarily burn out faster. I got about 120,000 miles on two Plymoth Champs I owned. One I sold, and it was still running at 200 K'
I fully expect all modern engines to last at least that long with a little maintenance. Even my 1974 MGB four banger is as smooth as can be without ever having an overhaul. Odometer says 97,000 miles but that could easily be the second time around. My 1994 Jeep four banger has 98,000 miles and uses absolutely no oil. I expect 200,000 out of both of them. However, I'd expect even more than that out of a reletively slow turning push rod V8.
But, engines wear out due to heat and friction. An engine turning 2,000 RPM at 70MPH is going to outlast one turning 2,500 or 3,000 or more at the same speed. The reason diesels last so long is that they are high torque, low revving machines. With any maintenance they will go 500,000 to a million miles. And they do.
Bill said: 'You have to think out of the box to see this.'
As for thinking out of the box, the hybrid is an incremental design. It is actually using old technology only new to automobiles. WW1 submarines and diesel electric locomotives in production since the 1930s have used hybrid technology. Also, refer to the mining trucks I mentioned above.
You like to quote Jack Welch, my old boss and arguably the best businessman of the 20th century. Jack hated incrementalism. People were fired for thinking in terms of 15 or 20% improvements. He wanted managers that always would swing for the fence. And it worked. GE revenues and profits increased 10 fold under his watch. If a manager took a big swing and missed, he got a second chance. If a manager was comfortable with incremental gains, he was 'refocused'.
So, I say go for the next great leap. Maybe it is fuel cells, maybe not. But I see hybrids as a largely PC incremental waste of R&D and manufacturing dollars.
Rich
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I've got an old 1990 6 cylinder with over 500,000 K's on it now and no signs of dying. An 1995 6 cylinder with 340,000 K's that hums. A couple of old pickup trucks with 8 cylinder engines with over 250,000 k's on them and no reason for replacing them.They are just getting broken in! Sure hope my new equipment serves me as well. All these vehicles were made in America, and well made. 
None of them are offshore hybrids 
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Bill Glasheen
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Indeed it is. But our infrastructure is not yet set up for fuel cell. Where are all the filling stations? Jack Welch himself couldn't manage that right now, no matter how hard he swung his bat.the hybrid is an incremental design
A number of companies are shooting for fuel cells. In the mean time, the incremental design gives the automobile industry a chance to benefit w/o trying for the home run and failing. And...they themselves say they need the hybrid experience to get the kinks out and master the manufacturing processes. Read it from many sources...
BTW, Jack Welch may or may not have been what you say he is. You know him better than I. I'm more familiar with the consumer end of things, and six sigma in general. But for the life of me, I can't think of any GE products that I bought that were "home run" designs. Just a better job at doing what others were already doing. It was always a choice between the GE and the other brands that were pretty much the same.
I think of Phillips as a "home run" design company. For example, first read/write CD drive I ever bought.
But even though hybrids are "incremental" designs and use "existing" technology, they sure have generated a hell of a lot of patents in the process of getting it all under the hood. Just ask Ford. Between the patents they applied for and the ones they pay royalties on to Toyota, I believe it's over 100.
As for the specs on hybrids, well I'm fully aware of the "issues." It is what it is. By law, nobody may post any mileage figures other than those done by a standard EPA test. Hybrids happen to do exceptionally well on that test, but not necessarily as well in Joe Blow's "typical" driving. And no matter how much hybrid companies might like to do more truth in advertising, the law says they cannot. Go figure. It is what it is.
As for me, my "typical" driving does not involve so much coasting. Too many *&^ $#@ traffic lights for that. I'm always trying to beat them, and have to brake suddenly when it looks like I can't. And I have several lights where I need to go through several cycles to get through. Start and stop. Start and stop. You can't coast in that bumper to bumper crap. 20K miles per year of it.
Frankly I believe anyone that does daily rush hour traffic (and has 3 destinations as I do) benefits particularly well with a hybrid. So much wasted energy in all that braking!
Coasting isn't so bad though. You do equally well on both hybrids and typical gas engines. But I don't get to coast much.
Again... I personally would not buy a hybrid design that had a tiny, high-revving engine paired with an electric motor. I'm looking for the standard gasoline engine PLUS the hybrid technology. In the end, I think this is what the market is going to go for. No loss in power/acceleration just to get freakish mileage figures.
Americans want to have it all. The free market will figure that out. Lexus is betting on it with its RX series hybrid. They can then bring it down to the Toyota SUVs with a little Lexus experience under the belt.
- Bill
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Bill said: 'But our infrastructure is not yet set up for fuel cell. Where are all the filling stations? Jack Welch himself couldn't manage that right now, no matter how hard he swung his bat.'
Jack wisely kept GE out of the auto and petro businesses! However, GE made tons of money supplying product to those industries.
Bill said: 'I can't think of any GE products that I bought that were "home run" designs. Just a better job at doing what others were already doing. It was always a choice between the GE and the other brands that were pretty much the same.'
What GE did in a mature market was keep cost down and build a reliable product and make money. A refrigerator costs less today than it did 25 years ago, not just in constant $ but in absolute $, and is more reliable. So, think about that... holding the line against inflation for 25 years! Also true for washers and dryers etc. We kept the Asians out of the market. That is a home run! And, actually got into the Japanese market, another home run! Had this not occured GE appliances would have been history decades ago.
But, the real successes were not in consumer goods, but industrial, medical and aircraft engines... high tech.
GE continues to come up with ever faster MRI and CAT machines, at lower prices. GE Med Systems revolutionized these machines with 10X speed jumps, not 1 or 2x (very importantant if you are in an MRI for a body scan or need a quick emergency look, also huge thruput at the hospital... step right up, no waiting!) and by standardizing hardware across the line and making almost all improvements via software. These are home runs that make GE #1 in this market.
Locomotives... AC drive 4400 HP and 6000 HP locomotives that can do the job of two or three GM EMD locomotives. Full time satellite diagnostics. At one point GM outsold GE 4 to 1. Now GE leads 2.5 to 1. That is huge!
Aircraft engines... GE designed an engine so good it was the first time the FAA allowed a 2 engine US commercial jet to cross the Atlantic and Pacific. This drove down fuel consumption, maintenance, cost of aircraft (an engine runs about $3 to $5 million). Others, such as P&W are allowed to do it now, but up until GE proved it could be done, no other manfacturer tried to meet the 1 billion hour mean time between failure requirement. This is beyond 7 Sigma! And after more than a decade, no GE powered twin jet has ever lost two engines during a flight.
Plus, since he rewarded successful big swingers generously, I could retire at 50! That is a home run!
I could go on forever..
Rich
Jack wisely kept GE out of the auto and petro businesses! However, GE made tons of money supplying product to those industries.
Bill said: 'I can't think of any GE products that I bought that were "home run" designs. Just a better job at doing what others were already doing. It was always a choice between the GE and the other brands that were pretty much the same.'
What GE did in a mature market was keep cost down and build a reliable product and make money. A refrigerator costs less today than it did 25 years ago, not just in constant $ but in absolute $, and is more reliable. So, think about that... holding the line against inflation for 25 years! Also true for washers and dryers etc. We kept the Asians out of the market. That is a home run! And, actually got into the Japanese market, another home run! Had this not occured GE appliances would have been history decades ago.
But, the real successes were not in consumer goods, but industrial, medical and aircraft engines... high tech.
GE continues to come up with ever faster MRI and CAT machines, at lower prices. GE Med Systems revolutionized these machines with 10X speed jumps, not 1 or 2x (very importantant if you are in an MRI for a body scan or need a quick emergency look, also huge thruput at the hospital... step right up, no waiting!) and by standardizing hardware across the line and making almost all improvements via software. These are home runs that make GE #1 in this market.
Locomotives... AC drive 4400 HP and 6000 HP locomotives that can do the job of two or three GM EMD locomotives. Full time satellite diagnostics. At one point GM outsold GE 4 to 1. Now GE leads 2.5 to 1. That is huge!
Aircraft engines... GE designed an engine so good it was the first time the FAA allowed a 2 engine US commercial jet to cross the Atlantic and Pacific. This drove down fuel consumption, maintenance, cost of aircraft (an engine runs about $3 to $5 million). Others, such as P&W are allowed to do it now, but up until GE proved it could be done, no other manfacturer tried to meet the 1 billion hour mean time between failure requirement. This is beyond 7 Sigma! And after more than a decade, no GE powered twin jet has ever lost two engines during a flight.
Plus, since he rewarded successful big swingers generously, I could retire at 50! That is a home run!
I could go on forever..
Rich
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Bill Glasheen
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So... Why should we not expect this with the whole energy system then?
My point some time back (and I supplied DOE figures) is that there HAVEN'T been improvements in the cost of energy, and it isn't going to get better. Computers and refrigerators get cheaper/better, and we are still held hostage to OPEC.
Our automobiles only run on gasoline or diesel today. And while Europe is selling half of all vehicles as diesel and getting big into biodiesel, and Japan is getting all the patents on hybrids (which LEAD to fuel cells), the American auto industry is a slave to petroleum.
Time to get off the butts. One year, two years, 10 years, doesn't matter to me. Just stop giving OPEC all that money. No more excuses. No minimizing anything. I throw a nerf ball at you, dude! (Private joke...)
I don't buy that incremental doesn't work, when the end game is BIG. Again, a fuel cell auto can run on pig poop. Or coal. Or vegetable oil. Or corn syrup turned to alcohol. Or natural gas. Or nuclear. Throw in some diesel engines that can also use vegetable oils, and gas engines that can run mostly on alcohol. If OPEC cops an attitude, tell them to take a hike. We can still fill up at the service station. Just go to another energy source. Competition is a wonderful way to break up monopolies, and reduce profit margins. That's way different than worrying about whether it takes 2 years or 4 years for Joe Blow to get a return on his hybrid.
And this is more than about free markets. We don't have free markets when a terrorist attack or government overthrow can turn the whole market on its ear. And we don't have freedom - period - if we are funding those that would rather see our society back in the Stone Age.
It's your word that incremental doesn't work. But Wards Auto articles quoting industry experts disagree with you. If you try to go straight from classic internal combustion to fuel cell, you're going to be left behind. You'll be behind both on patents and manufacturing experience needed to do the end game. The U.S. market is ALREADY behind...
Remember that before the Ford Escape, there was the Model A. And the Model T.
It's one thing to make this work in a big-a$$ed locomotive or power plant, or the space shuttle. It's quite another getting this under the hood at an affordable price. I see a start...
- Bill
My point some time back (and I supplied DOE figures) is that there HAVEN'T been improvements in the cost of energy, and it isn't going to get better. Computers and refrigerators get cheaper/better, and we are still held hostage to OPEC.
Our automobiles only run on gasoline or diesel today. And while Europe is selling half of all vehicles as diesel and getting big into biodiesel, and Japan is getting all the patents on hybrids (which LEAD to fuel cells), the American auto industry is a slave to petroleum.
Time to get off the butts. One year, two years, 10 years, doesn't matter to me. Just stop giving OPEC all that money. No more excuses. No minimizing anything. I throw a nerf ball at you, dude! (Private joke...)
I don't buy that incremental doesn't work, when the end game is BIG. Again, a fuel cell auto can run on pig poop. Or coal. Or vegetable oil. Or corn syrup turned to alcohol. Or natural gas. Or nuclear. Throw in some diesel engines that can also use vegetable oils, and gas engines that can run mostly on alcohol. If OPEC cops an attitude, tell them to take a hike. We can still fill up at the service station. Just go to another energy source. Competition is a wonderful way to break up monopolies, and reduce profit margins. That's way different than worrying about whether it takes 2 years or 4 years for Joe Blow to get a return on his hybrid.
And this is more than about free markets. We don't have free markets when a terrorist attack or government overthrow can turn the whole market on its ear. And we don't have freedom - period - if we are funding those that would rather see our society back in the Stone Age.
It's your word that incremental doesn't work. But Wards Auto articles quoting industry experts disagree with you. If you try to go straight from classic internal combustion to fuel cell, you're going to be left behind. You'll be behind both on patents and manufacturing experience needed to do the end game. The U.S. market is ALREADY behind...
Remember that before the Ford Escape, there was the Model A. And the Model T.
It's one thing to make this work in a big-a$$ed locomotive or power plant, or the space shuttle. It's quite another getting this under the hood at an affordable price. I see a start...
- Bill
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Bill said: 'and Japan is getting all the patents on hybrids (which LEAD to fuel cells),'
How does a hybrid lead to a fuel cell? They have the electrical drive in common but that is old and proven technology. What does having an IC engine and an electric motor under the hood have in common with a fuel cell? Go straight to the fuel cell and improve it incrementally if that is your end game.
The future will be determined by the consumer. When petro products become prohibitively expensive there will be a massive shift. The R&D centers at the petro companies are working on breakthru fuel cell technologies so they can stay in business when the shift occurs. They know all about production and distribution and will hit the ground running when the economics support it. The corner Exxon station will quickly be converted to a fuel source for fuel cells.
The GEs and Siemens companies of the world are also doing R&D on fuel cells and they may get there before the petro companies. However, these companies goals will be to have a product ready to supply to the vehicle manufacturers. The big swingers are all getting ready.
In the meantime, when gasoline products get in the vicinity of $4 a gallon (not including taxes) the enormous oil shale fields in the US west will become an economical energy source, as will coal gasification.
The US has time on its side. The middle east does not. I'm not thinking short term fix. I'm looking long term, strategic thinker that I am.
Let me pose this question... Canada has huge proven oil reserves. If they doubled their exports to the US that would completely eliminate the need for middle east oil. The huge influx of cash would be a boost to their economy and the Canadaian Loonie (that is the nickname for their dollar I believe) would be wortha dollar! Why are we not getting support from them? At some point I believe we could find a way to tolerate the French Canadians if it meant a reliable energy supply.
Rich
How does a hybrid lead to a fuel cell? They have the electrical drive in common but that is old and proven technology. What does having an IC engine and an electric motor under the hood have in common with a fuel cell? Go straight to the fuel cell and improve it incrementally if that is your end game.
The future will be determined by the consumer. When petro products become prohibitively expensive there will be a massive shift. The R&D centers at the petro companies are working on breakthru fuel cell technologies so they can stay in business when the shift occurs. They know all about production and distribution and will hit the ground running when the economics support it. The corner Exxon station will quickly be converted to a fuel source for fuel cells.
The GEs and Siemens companies of the world are also doing R&D on fuel cells and they may get there before the petro companies. However, these companies goals will be to have a product ready to supply to the vehicle manufacturers. The big swingers are all getting ready.
In the meantime, when gasoline products get in the vicinity of $4 a gallon (not including taxes) the enormous oil shale fields in the US west will become an economical energy source, as will coal gasification.
The US has time on its side. The middle east does not. I'm not thinking short term fix. I'm looking long term, strategic thinker that I am.
Let me pose this question... Canada has huge proven oil reserves. If they doubled their exports to the US that would completely eliminate the need for middle east oil. The huge influx of cash would be a boost to their economy and the Canadaian Loonie (that is the nickname for their dollar I believe) would be wortha dollar! Why are we not getting support from them? At some point I believe we could find a way to tolerate the French Canadians if it meant a reliable energy supply.
Rich
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Bill Glasheen
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Good thoughts. Good questions...
Only the Canadians know Canadians.
I have a brilliant fellow/friend I hired from Canada (graduate of McGill) who now works for a different company, but in the same town. We keep in touch. Anyhow he is back up in Montreal for a week. Before he left, he asked me what he could bring back. We got to talking about the Conan O'Brian show that so ticked off the French Canadians that Conan actually (gasp) apologized. Meanwhile they replayed that show last week. It was in Toronto. The worst of it was Triumph the Insult Dog "interviewing" French Canadians.
The show was in Toronto, and those Canadians were laughing their butts off and adding to the free-for-all.
So anyhow, I responded to my friend's question with a question. With the Conan show in mind, I asked my friend what he could bring down from Canada that would capture the enigma of the Canadian. His immediate answer? Maple Syrup.
I have an American friend/economist who once told me he thought it a GOOD idea to buy Arab oil and sit on your reserves. Why? He said let the Arabs pump all their oil now, and sit on what we own. Twenty years from now, we'll be sitting on the same oil, and it will be worth twice as much.
Maybe the Canadians are smart!
As for the rest of it all, well we clearly are differing on political and economic policy. There are several solutions here. You are choosing a purely Adam Smith approach. I see things being more complex than a free market economy. I see us giving money to people that want to off us. I see the advantage of a government with vision and self interest manipulating the market so that more players (more energy options) come to the table. That way you have more competition. Competition is a good thing. It takes the pricing power away from your supplier.
No simple solutions here.
- Bill
Only the Canadians know Canadians.
I have a brilliant fellow/friend I hired from Canada (graduate of McGill) who now works for a different company, but in the same town. We keep in touch. Anyhow he is back up in Montreal for a week. Before he left, he asked me what he could bring back. We got to talking about the Conan O'Brian show that so ticked off the French Canadians that Conan actually (gasp) apologized. Meanwhile they replayed that show last week. It was in Toronto. The worst of it was Triumph the Insult Dog "interviewing" French Canadians.
The show was in Toronto, and those Canadians were laughing their butts off and adding to the free-for-all.
So anyhow, I responded to my friend's question with a question. With the Conan show in mind, I asked my friend what he could bring down from Canada that would capture the enigma of the Canadian. His immediate answer? Maple Syrup.
I have an American friend/economist who once told me he thought it a GOOD idea to buy Arab oil and sit on your reserves. Why? He said let the Arabs pump all their oil now, and sit on what we own. Twenty years from now, we'll be sitting on the same oil, and it will be worth twice as much.
Maybe the Canadians are smart!
As for the rest of it all, well we clearly are differing on political and economic policy. There are several solutions here. You are choosing a purely Adam Smith approach. I see things being more complex than a free market economy. I see us giving money to people that want to off us. I see the advantage of a government with vision and self interest manipulating the market so that more players (more energy options) come to the table. That way you have more competition. Competition is a good thing. It takes the pricing power away from your supplier.
No simple solutions here.
- Bill
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Bill said: 'I see the advantage of a government with vision and self interest manipulating the market'
UGH! Bill, I thought you were a Libertarian. The last thing we need is the government involved in the marketplace. They will only screw it up. In the long run, market forces will determine the correct path. It may be painful, but it will do the correct thing over time.
As a predatory capitalist by nature and training, I trust that corporate greed will ultimately produce the products and services Americans want, be it hybrids or fuel cells or used cooking oil engines.
I completely agree with sitting on our North American resouces. Within our lifetime we will see the middle east still in the stone age except without oil $$$.
Rich
UGH! Bill, I thought you were a Libertarian. The last thing we need is the government involved in the marketplace. They will only screw it up. In the long run, market forces will determine the correct path. It may be painful, but it will do the correct thing over time.
As a predatory capitalist by nature and training, I trust that corporate greed will ultimately produce the products and services Americans want, be it hybrids or fuel cells or used cooking oil engines.
I completely agree with sitting on our North American resouces. Within our lifetime we will see the middle east still in the stone age except without oil $$$.
Rich
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Bill Glasheen
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It's not strictly a libertarian vs. government thing, Rich, when MANY governments are involved. This is an international affair. Some governments are digging into their deep pockets to encourage visionary research and product development.
NASA and the U.S. military are good models here. Certain industries in the U.S. are ahead because private enterprise benefited from government interests - defense and technological innovation. Government also protected some of these industries (such as defense) from being bought by foreign interests.
Is energy policy a matter of national interest? National defense? Those are two damn good reasons to get government involved. For example, you know that our military is not a private enterprise affair.
Consider the amount of government subsidy you see in Germany and Japan on this. They have their own visions, and U.S. private enterprise must compete against these deep pockets.
Meanwhile, the average U.S. consumer is getting beat up, and the average U.S. worker's job may be in jeopardy in the future.
Or...
The U.S. could take the lead, get more of the patents for its industry (as the Germans and Japanese are attempting to do), and be there to reap the rewards when the inevitable happens.
It could be proactively addressing a strategic concern rather than reactively sending troops to camel land when the $hit hits the fan.
- Bill
NASA and the U.S. military are good models here. Certain industries in the U.S. are ahead because private enterprise benefited from government interests - defense and technological innovation. Government also protected some of these industries (such as defense) from being bought by foreign interests.
Is energy policy a matter of national interest? National defense? Those are two damn good reasons to get government involved. For example, you know that our military is not a private enterprise affair.
Consider the amount of government subsidy you see in Germany and Japan on this. They have their own visions, and U.S. private enterprise must compete against these deep pockets.
Meanwhile, the average U.S. consumer is getting beat up, and the average U.S. worker's job may be in jeopardy in the future.
Or...
The U.S. could take the lead, get more of the patents for its industry (as the Germans and Japanese are attempting to do), and be there to reap the rewards when the inevitable happens.
It could be proactively addressing a strategic concern rather than reactively sending troops to camel land when the $hit hits the fan.
- Bill
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RACastanet
- Posts: 3744
- Joined: Thu Mar 11, 1999 6:01 am
- Location: Richmond, VA
The big difference in our country is that GE is GE, GM is GM, Exxon is Exxon. In the much more socialistic business world it is Japan Inc, Germany Inc, France Inc etc.. The foreign corporations do not have to be profitable the way a US public company must be. Some of the Euro and Asian companies never make money. Nope, not a good comparison.
Also, even when the US economy is weak, it is still #1 in the world and drives everything.
Regarding patents, at last look the US was still leading the world. GE is usually at the top if not on the top of the world list to boot. I would wager that some of those patents are on fuel cell technology. Making things that make electricity (and use it) is still important to GE.
Some of the patents for hybrids are more packaging than anything. No real tech breakthrus, just methods of fitting it all under a hood already crowded by the usual IC components. A motor still looks like a motor, and a thyrister still looks like a thyrister. I mentioned the IGBT to you last week. That was a breakthru over 10 years ago... a true switchable high voltage, high power device. That was an ABB development I believe. Nothing much new since then.
Add to that the cost of supporting a superpower military to try to keep everyone honest. If the US left Europe, Japan, Korea etc to defend themselves we would have hundreds of billions of dollars to spend on fuel cells or whatever. However, the mischief makers would then run amok.
Guns or butter? Right now we need guns. And if necessary, someday take someone elses butter. Time to stop being so civilized and turn imperialistic.
By the way, Galyons at Stoney Point now carries the great Winchester .45 ACP in 185 grain for individual sale to consumers... $12.99 a box. Good price.
Rich
Also, even when the US economy is weak, it is still #1 in the world and drives everything.
Regarding patents, at last look the US was still leading the world. GE is usually at the top if not on the top of the world list to boot. I would wager that some of those patents are on fuel cell technology. Making things that make electricity (and use it) is still important to GE.
Some of the patents for hybrids are more packaging than anything. No real tech breakthrus, just methods of fitting it all under a hood already crowded by the usual IC components. A motor still looks like a motor, and a thyrister still looks like a thyrister. I mentioned the IGBT to you last week. That was a breakthru over 10 years ago... a true switchable high voltage, high power device. That was an ABB development I believe. Nothing much new since then.
Add to that the cost of supporting a superpower military to try to keep everyone honest. If the US left Europe, Japan, Korea etc to defend themselves we would have hundreds of billions of dollars to spend on fuel cells or whatever. However, the mischief makers would then run amok.
Guns or butter? Right now we need guns. And if necessary, someday take someone elses butter. Time to stop being so civilized and turn imperialistic.
By the way, Galyons at Stoney Point now carries the great Winchester .45 ACP in 185 grain for individual sale to consumers... $12.99 a box. Good price.
Rich
Member of the world's premier gun club, the USMC!
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Bill Glasheen
- Posts: 17299
- Joined: Thu Mar 11, 1999 6:01 am
- Location: Richmond, VA --- Louisville, KY
Noted about Gaylons. We need to have another couple of session. I can buy a gaggle of the stuff and get beyond the dry firing again. Plus number 1 son needs some lessons so he can operate the air gun he wants so badly.
Interesting view on world affairs, Rich. It works. Might cause a little shock and awe in the world community though....
I still like the idea of having an energy policy. I don't like someone holding the lifeblood of my economy hostage. I don't like deficit spending by any means - guns OR butter. I may vote for a candidate with the right ideas if I can find one. However there seems to be a clear lack of leadership, vision, and charisma in the candidate pool these days. Kerry talks the talk, but that's about all he does.
Sigh...
And I will think globally and act locally. One candle...
- Bill
Interesting view on world affairs, Rich. It works. Might cause a little shock and awe in the world community though....
I still like the idea of having an energy policy. I don't like someone holding the lifeblood of my economy hostage. I don't like deficit spending by any means - guns OR butter. I may vote for a candidate with the right ideas if I can find one. However there seems to be a clear lack of leadership, vision, and charisma in the candidate pool these days. Kerry talks the talk, but that's about all he does.
Sigh...
And I will think globally and act locally. One candle...
- Bill
-
Bill Glasheen
- Posts: 17299
- Joined: Thu Mar 11, 1999 6:01 am
- Location: Richmond, VA --- Louisville, KY
You missed it, Rich! They were in town...
The Ford Escape Hybrid sport utility vehicle was brought by the Times-Dispatch building for a quick test drive yesterday.
DEAN HOFFMEYER/RTD
An SUV that gets 35 mpg in the city?
- Bill
The Ford Escape Hybrid sport utility vehicle was brought by the Times-Dispatch building for a quick test drive yesterday.
DEAN HOFFMEYER/RTD
An SUV that gets 35 mpg in the city?
- Bill
-
RACastanet
- Posts: 3744
- Joined: Thu Mar 11, 1999 6:01 am
- Location: Richmond, VA
Knew it was coming, just not interested. I was waiting for you to post it!
The report in the paper was interesting. This version runs like a golf cart in stop and go traffic... it should be perfect for your soccer dad lifestyle. Room for 5, probably comfortably. The regen circuits would be kept busy. However, as the combined efficiency of the electronics and motor is in the low 90% range at best, even if you maximized the regen cycle you would still eventually need to have the engine run a bit in stop and go traffic.
The writer mistated that the battery recovers the heat energy to charge the batteries. It is actually the rotational kinetic energy.
As speed drops the regen braking effect would also drop as a square of the motor terminal voltage. I wonder how they balance that with the regular hydraulic brakes? Might just be a driver feel requirement.
When are you buying one and taking me on a test ride?
Rich
The report in the paper was interesting. This version runs like a golf cart in stop and go traffic... it should be perfect for your soccer dad lifestyle. Room for 5, probably comfortably. The regen circuits would be kept busy. However, as the combined efficiency of the electronics and motor is in the low 90% range at best, even if you maximized the regen cycle you would still eventually need to have the engine run a bit in stop and go traffic.
The writer mistated that the battery recovers the heat energy to charge the batteries. It is actually the rotational kinetic energy.
As speed drops the regen braking effect would also drop as a square of the motor terminal voltage. I wonder how they balance that with the regular hydraulic brakes? Might just be a driver feel requirement.
When are you buying one and taking me on a test ride?
Rich
Member of the world's premier gun club, the USMC!
