These are excellent questions, Bruise. Your facts are a little rough, but you make your point pretty well.
Bruise wrote:
Are we willing to stay 100 years?
In what capacity? Over 60 years after the end of WWII, we still have a strong presence on Okinawa. But then that's a win-win proposition for the most part. We add to their economy, and they provide a launching point for global military reach.
Will Iraq serve as such a base in the future? It's probably not a great idea. Kuwait seems like a better place to put that kind of presence, since they were more than grateful that we extracted Hussein and his sociopaths from their country. Iraq's quite a bit messier.
Will that place be a mess for a while? Probably. It certainly will be no less messy than our own Union was in-between 1776 and 1865.
Bruise wrote:
Although to many , and in reality to myself, that area just seems like a homogenous group of Muslims. But there is alot of class distinctions I believe. The Sunni were kind of the "ruling class" under Hussein, and the Shi'ites were the "lower class". An uneasy balance, but Hussein kept it in balance none the less. There will ALWAYS be class distinctions.
It's actually WAY more complicated than that.
- The Sunnis were a ruling minority in much the same way that whites were a ruling minority in South Africa before things finally settled. The transition there wasn't pretty, BTW... In any case, the Sunnis have political ties to Syria (the Baath party) and to Saudi Arabia (Sunni sects of the Muslim religion). This explains how they were able to rule as a minority for so long.
- The Kurds in the north represent an ethnic group which extends into Turkey and Iran. If they had their way, there would be an independent Kurdistan which would also incorporate land now held by those respective countries. Neither Turkey nor Iran are happy about that prospect. Meanwhile, the Kurdish region has been both stable and prosperous ever since we started protecting them from Saddam's ethnic cleansing way back in the early 1990s. They are quite happy we are around for now, FWIW...
- The Shia are the majority in the country. They have religious - but NOT ethnic - ties to Iran. They are happy we got Uncle Saddam out, but a minority of them would just as soon see us gone so they could set up the same Islamic fascist state (a.k.a. theocracy) that exists today in Iran.
The Ottomans ruled a very large area of the Middle East, but did so by clearly divided areas. WWII broke up the Ottoman Empire, and artificial boundaries were formed in the area that didn't make either religious or ethnic sense. To complicate matters further, oil was discovered, and is not evenly distributed throughout Iraq or the Middle East as a whole. So re-creating the old boundaries isn't an option today.
Yes, it's a mess.
Should we just cut our losses and leave? IMO, that's fine so long as you don't mind another 9/11 in a few years. Al qaeda and their own Wahabism-inspired version of Islam has made it their mission to fight us in Iraq by inflaming these ethnic and religious tensions. No act is too unethical to commit in order to achieve their end of muslim fascist rule throughout the world as well as the destruction of Israel and the U.S.
In short, we need to deal with it.
Bruise wrote:
Now after our interfer.... intervention we uspet the balance...yes? No?
Saddam was NOT a solution, as you suggest. Quite the contrary, he was part of the problem - a problem that myopic US foreign policy and UN actions created. (We could spend days talking about that...) The whole "WMD" talk is just political babblespeak which distracts everyone from the underlying problems that exist in the region. And if we don't find ways to deal with it, there will indeed be WMD issues - on our own soil.
Should we stay in Iraq for 100 years? IMO the question is more relevant than you know. As I see it, as long as there is oil in the Middle East which can fuel a political movement based upon hate of Israel and the West, we will need to deal with it. HOW we deal with it is the only question.
- Bill