Global Warming Alarmists Eating Words

Bill's forum was the first! All subjects are welcome. Participation by all encouraged.

Moderator: Available

User avatar
Bill Glasheen
Posts: 17299
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 1999 6:01 am
Location: Richmond, VA --- Louisville, KY

Post by Bill Glasheen »

Glenn wrote:
The cash-cow is where you are Bill, a scientist in the corporate world. :wink:
I've done both in my lifetime, Glenn. I've done academic research from grant proposals that I have written. I have my gaggle of publications that my team put out in an intense 4 years of research. And then I went into the corporate world.

Cash cow? Not really. Not when you consider that the real way to make money is through the time value of money. If it was making bucks that I was after, then I would have cut out with my EE engineering degree, made some bucks, invested early, and retired somewhere about now (assuming I got out of The Market at the right time). My Ph.D. was a long time coming with many years living hand-to-mouth. Then there were those post doc years for slave labor wages which helped pay off my trainingship grants. It was a very, very long time before I had positive net worth, what with all the loans I had to pay off.

Meanwhile, the line between pure corporate research and pure academic research is blurred. Did you know that they built the new Darden business school at UVa with 100% private funds? Many of the business professors there make lots of money on consulting. Their academic positions give them visibility and clout in a world happy to pay for their expertise.

I saw that in my medical research as well. While I went strictly for NIH and AHA grants, my mentor was funded by a private entity hoping to cash in on his work with red-blood-cell-sized albumin microbubbles (used in contrast imaging). Big Pharma grants can pay for a lot of studies as well.

Meanwhile, the NIH and NSF grants are few and far between. Getting them - and the tenure that comes with them - is a cut throat process. Any controversy that causes the government to want to throw more research money at a problem could help any post doc chart a course to a tenured academic position. And there is no job security like a tenured position. Meanwhile, the vast majority of academic wannabes don't make tenure - particularly in a field that isn't "hot" at the time. It's all about the grant money, Glenn. Bring in the bacon, and your academic institution will give you tenure. Otherwise, you never make it past slave labor wages.

Job security in the corporate world? Forgetaboutit! I've already experienced the shut-down of two different research units due to corporate takeovers. The money is good... when the money is good. When the shareholder doesn't need you, no more job. I'm just fortunate that my reputation kept me employed either by vendors or competitors.
Glenn wrote:
evidence of misconduct, 'poor science', undue influence of conflicts of interest, etc, can be a career-killer in science, and scientists do a fairly effective job at policing other scientists.
I've seen it twice in my academic career, Glenn. It happens. In fact... My dissertation started as an attempt to advance the research of a Harvard scientist who published his work in Science. Instead, it became something very different. It took 2 years of taking data before I got the balls to call him on something he claimed in his publication - the stationarity of rhythms in cardio-respiratory signals. It turns out that rhythms that come and go is the rule, and stationarity is the exception to the rule. Sick people have regular rhythms (seizure activity in the brain, Cheyne-Stokes breathing, etc.). Healthy people adapt to their environment at the drop of a pin, so don't exhibit regular oscillations of their cardio-respiratory function. Thank God I believed in myself and my data. Otherwise I wouldn't have gotten my PhD. Meanwhile... nobody knows that Cohen's paper was wrong. Negative findings aren't "sexy." Mine happened to be sexy enough, because they validated a "chaos" understanding of the world.
A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on.
- Sir Winston Churcill

More later, Glenn. BTW, your second post is spot on. ;)

- Bill
User avatar
Bill Glasheen
Posts: 17299
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 1999 6:01 am
Location: Richmond, VA --- Louisville, KY

Post by Bill Glasheen »

Glenn wrote:
over the long term global cooling likely will be a reality. Earth has been in a cycle of glacial and interglacial periods for about 400 million years now and there is no reason to believe that the current warming period is not just another interglacial leading up to the next ice age. As the link you provided points out, the next ice age is due in as little as 1,000 years or as long as 50,000 years, regardless of any anthropogenic global warming that may be occuring.
That about sums it up.
Glenn wrote:
keep in mind that those arguing against anthropogenic global warming are the ones on the fringe currently and thus why they are trying to make as much noise as they can.
This isn't exactly true. To wit...
If a former vice president with absolutely no formal scientific training in climatology or meteorology makes a statement about the world coming to an end due to rising temperatures, media will fawn over him like teenyboppers in the presence of Elvis Presley.

Yet, if more than 100 scientists from around the world send a letter to the Secretary General of the United Nations urging him and his organization to stop wasting time, resources, and money fighting a futile climate change battle, crickets will be heard in newsrooms around the country.

Pretty disgraceful, wouldn't you agree?
I certainly would. (Link to the letter)
Glenn wrote:
Is anthropogenic induced global warming reality? Probably, but I think it too soon to be conclusive. And in the long run it probably does not matter against the backdrop of natural climate change. But that does not mean anthpogenic global warming or the possible concerns it raises should be dismissed out of hand or that we should put much emphasis on media headlines about it.
I think what's more relevant is charting climate change and responding accordingly. And I would like to add that - unlike what you hear from all the doomsday politicians - not all change is bad.

For instance... Somebody please tell me how water will be a precious commodity in this world when allegedly we'll be melting all the ice. Doesn't that ice turn to... water??

And somebody please tell me how this planet has always teamed with life in spite of dramatic swings in climate - even without the "help" of homo sapiens.

What I DO dismiss out of hand is the rantings of eco terrorists who'd just as soon see us all live the simple life they want. I'm good on anyone going back to Nature and such; I have my own tiny piece of Eden. But I'll rebel out of principle if someone's going to force me to a "simpler" life just because they hate the industrial, corporate world. Their problems aren't my problems. And don't think that this loose coalition of granola eaters doesn't exist.

- Bill
User avatar
Bill Glasheen
Posts: 17299
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 1999 6:01 am
Location: Richmond, VA --- Louisville, KY

Post by Bill Glasheen »

The rational "anti" crowd has its rock stars as well. ;)

Michael Crichton on Environmentalism as a Religion

- Bill
User avatar
Glenn
Posts: 2199
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2001 6:01 am
Location: Lincoln, Nebraska

Post by Glenn »

Bill Glasheen wrote: I've done both in my lifetime...

- Bill
All of that "fun" is still ahead of me. I'm tied up at the moment in simply determining a research program and deciding who in the department would would be the best fit for my advisor (which of course will then be followed by convincing that person to agree). Fortunately post-doc is not a part of my field, I'll either go straight into academia or the corporate world (hopefully the former, but it will depend on what is available). Consulting, yes that slipped my mind but now there is an aspect of interest, combining the academic and corporate worlds. There is also free-lance but that has even higher risks.

Actually I do agree that the lines between academic and corporate have gotten blurred. To some extent the dichotomy has always been a bit arbitrary, just like the dichotomy between scientist and inventor. "Applied" science in particular needs an outlet for its innovations, that outlet is usually provided by the corporations. The growing specialization and expense of research in most applied fields is only making the distinctions increasinglty harder to justify. Really the only difference in a lot of cases is where the researcher is based, a university or a corporation.

I know there will be frustrations for me in academia. The past 12 years I've spent in the corporate world, along with being older and hopefully wiser, have changed my perspective on a lot of things, and in many ways I view academia differently now then I did the last time I was in it. My focus is entirely on applied science now, with little interest anymore in pure theory. Geography straddles the social and natural sciences and unfortunately there is currently a lot of emphasis in academic geography on "spatial social theory"...neocolonism, neoliberalism, post-colonialism, post-structuralism, postmodernism, and a whole lot of other 'isms. Last time around I found this stuff mildly interesting, now it just tests my patience. I suppose academically I am becoming a conservative. When the flagship American geography journal, the Annals of the Association of American Geographers, comes in the mail, I'm lucky to find one relevant article. Mind you there are other specialized outlets for applied spatial science, but because of its status within American geographic circles the Annals provides the best indicator of the current state of the discipline at the academic levels, and that state concerns me. 20 years ago I would not have imagined that it would reach a stage where most of the articles are devoid of any quantitative analysis...or for that matter, devoid of any maps! 8O

So before it is all over I may end up a spatial scientist in the corporate world simply because that may be the best fit for me, but still adjunct teaching to keep a hand in education.

Speaking of geography education and maps, every quarter I have at least one student comment on the course evaluation that their least favorite aspect of my human geography course is maps. :roll: Makes me wonder what those students really expected of a geography course, but if they were to elaborate I suspect that what they really don't like is that I don't just use maps as pretty pictures, but work on getting the students to use them as an analytical tool.
Glenn
User avatar
Bill Glasheen
Posts: 17299
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 1999 6:01 am
Location: Richmond, VA --- Louisville, KY

Post by Bill Glasheen »

Fun stuff, Glenn.

Keep following your dream. Whether in industry or academia, it isn't about the money. It's about what makes you happy. Most anyone can make an OK living doing just about anything if they love what they are doing and throw their heart into it.

- Bill
User avatar
Bill Glasheen
Posts: 17299
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 1999 6:01 am
Location: Richmond, VA --- Louisville, KY

Post by Bill Glasheen »

I remember when I first read The Andromeda Strain many decades ago. And then I read Jurassic Park before I saw the movie. And then there's the TV show ER of course... Michael knows how to tell a fun disaster story.

Here he is on global warming. What clarity of thought! (IMNSHO, of course... ;))

- Bill

Michael Crichton on Global Warming, Part 1 of 3

Michael Crichton on Global Warming, Part 2 of 3

Michael Crichton on Global Warming, Part 3 of 3
User avatar
Glenn
Posts: 2199
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2001 6:01 am
Location: Lincoln, Nebraska

Post by Glenn »

Bill Glasheen wrote:
Glenn wrote:
keep in mind that those arguing against anthropogenic global warming are the ones on the fringe currently and thus why they are trying to make as much noise as they can.
This isn't exactly true. To wit...
If a former vice president with absolutely no formal scientific training in climatology or meteorology makes a statement about the world coming to an end due to rising temperatures, media will fawn over him like teenyboppers in the presence of Elvis Presley.

Yet, if more than 100 scientists from around the world send a letter to the Secretary General of the United Nations urging him and his organization to stop wasting time, resources, and money fighting a futile climate change battle, crickets will be heard in newsrooms around the country.

Pretty disgraceful, wouldn't you agree?
I certainly would.
I think we may be looking at "fringe" differently here. I am not so much talking about numbers of supporters but more about how much publicity they generate. As you indicate with your quoted sources, the "pro" crowd gets more publicity than the "anti" crowd, so the latter has to make more noise to be heard. To me that is being on the fringe.

Speaking of silence and crickets, when we get to talking about issues like global warming in my class, I generally try to play devil's advocate for both sides and generate some meaningful discussion from the class. To get things started I use a map of changes within a glacial system in Alaska. I will point to the focal part of the map that charts out how certain glaciers have receded over time and ask what is going on there. The discussion invariably focuses on human-induced global warming, greenhouse gases, etc. Then I point out the earliest recorded dates of recession shown on the map, which occured during the late 1700s, i.e., the first decades of the industrial revolution, and ask how greenhouse gases were responsible before their atmospheric level had changed much, particularly in a remote place like Alaska. Then I point to another section of the map that shows no change in particular glaciers during the past 200+ years; then to another glacier on the map that has actually grown slightly over the past 200+ years.

By then the crickets are heard and the students are quietly either tuning out because they are having to think or tuning in to the complexity of the system being represented on the map, so then I lead the discussion to the relevance of a single glacial system (or other single source of data) or a narrow time period to a topic as complex as climate change. From there we talk about the difference between natural climate change and human-induced climate change and evidence for and against human-induced global warming, with the appropriate charts and maps including the strengths and weaknesses of each. I highlight the complexity of the issue and that it is not as straight-forward as the media often portrays. Then I usually leave them with the question: 'What if we cut greenhouse emissions and do all the environmentally "correct" things to do and it doesn't end up making any difference because of natural levels of warming, what then...what is our contingency plan?' Naturally that is not something ever heard in the media so hopefully it gets them thinking about the issue in a way they have not thought of before.

In the short amount of class time I can devote to an issue like this I probably just leave them more confused than anything, since most of the time they are simply wanting me to given them what I think the answer is or confirmation of what they think the answer is, but my goal is to get them to think about the evidence themselves rather than just what they are being told. And come exam time, if I make causes of climate change an essay question I don't care which position they take as long as they are weighing evidence in the process rather than just regurgitating what they have gotten from me, the textbook, or the media.

On second thought, no wonder I get evaluation responses from some saying the maps were their least favorite aspect of the course! :lol:
Glenn
User avatar
Bill Glasheen
Posts: 17299
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 1999 6:01 am
Location: Richmond, VA --- Louisville, KY

Post by Bill Glasheen »

User avatar
Glenn
Posts: 2199
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2001 6:01 am
Location: Lincoln, Nebraska

Post by Glenn »

A well-written lecture. Unfortunately I have never read any of Crichton's books. I knew well before the reveal that he was writing about eugenics. Geography was not immune to it, being dominated at that time by the concept of environmental determinism (or geographical determinism), essentially that the physical environment determined the success of cultures and races. It was largely used to argue a geographic reason for a supremacy of western civilization and justification for colonization of the rest of the world by western empires. Not surprisingly environmental determinism was highly geographically ethnocentric and racist, with authors usually determining that the ideal environment for peak civilization was where they lived. :roll:

A leading advocate of environmental determinism was Ellsworth Huntington, already mentioned above for his popularizing of climate topics. A geographer at Yale from 1907 until his death in 1947, Huntington was a prolific writer on many topics, but his geographic work in particular was heavily influenced by eugenics in such books as Civilization and Climate and The Character of Races. Huntington even served a term as president of the American Eugenics Society from 1934-1938, in addition to terms as president of the Association of American Geographers (1923) and the Ecological Society of America (1917). Whereas environmental determinism largely fell out of favor in American geography by 1930, Huntington held onto it unrepentently until his death.
Leading scientific journals have taken strong editorial positions of the side of global warming, which, I argue, they have no business doing. Under the circumstances, any scientist who has doubts understands clearly that they will be wise to mute their expression.
I could not agree with this more. The role of journals are to publish articles based on their individual scientific merits, not to be used as a forum for editors to advocate positions. Then again, if an editor has a strong position it might be best for him/her to make it public so that authors know to publish elsewhere, but that is not how journals should be used.
Glenn
nosib
Posts: 190
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2001 6:01 am

Post by nosib »

If you didn't know....Michael Crichton died 11/04/08
from cancer. He was 66 years old.
User avatar
Jason Rees
Site Admin
Posts: 1754
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2007 11:06 am
Location: USA

Post by Jason Rees »

At this rate, I feel sorry for the rest of my favorite authors.
AAAhmed46
Posts: 3493
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2005 10:49 pm
Location: Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.

Post by AAAhmed46 »

ER is ending too.

Did his book about nano-technology get made into a movie yet? Maybe it did and i was sleeping.

Hope it makes it to the big screen.
User avatar
Jason Rees
Site Admin
Posts: 1754
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2007 11:06 am
Location: USA

Post by Jason Rees »

Prey? I think it's in the shooting stage.
Post Reply

Return to “Bill Glasheen's Dojo Roundtable”