Bill, how bad do you think it will get? (Swine Flu)

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f.Channell
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Post by f.Channell »

The company I work for sells Purell and was sold out about 30 minutes after opening this morning.

F.
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mhosea
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Post by mhosea »

Yes but I think I'd better use the sanitzer first!!
OYA?
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mhosea
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Post by mhosea »

f.Channell wrote:The company I work for sells Purell and was sold out about 30 minutes after opening this morning.
F.
Yeah, but will ethyl alcohol "kill" this virus or just cool it off?
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Bill Glasheen
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Post by Bill Glasheen »

I've done a little research on this.

There are some hand sanitizers that have been tested and shown to kill influenza virus. One example is Viraguard

But the best method is a sink, soap, and some water. I've worked with some of the people in academia who have published hundreds of articles on wound care and hand sanitizing . Flushing pathogens off your skin (rather than trying to kill them and making your hands vulnerable to infection in the process) is the best bet. In other words, use mild soap and RUNNING water.

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Post by jfinnivan »

I'm wondering if face masks do any good against a virus.
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mhosea
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Post by mhosea »

Sure, but in one context are they practical? You take someone who knows the rules and wears a correctly fitted N95 mask for a short period of time when they are exposed to a known infected person, and it's a useful filtration device. Throw one on a random person in public and have him wear it all day, and I don't think it's going to work very well. Eyes beg to be rubbed, noses to be scratched, and you've got a virus and germ collector on your face.
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Bill Glasheen
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Post by Bill Glasheen »

jfinnivan wrote:
I'm wondering if face masks do any good against a virus.
They are best used on the person with influenza.

The masks you see random people wear in public? Next to useless. If it makes your face itchy and you put your hands to your eyes (as suggested above), then it's worse than useless.

- Bill
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Bill Glasheen
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Post by Bill Glasheen »

This from The Wall Street Journal.
***

a U.S. health official said the virus lacks genes that made the 1918 pandemic strain so deadly. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the new virus is "a very unusual" four-way combination of human genes and genes from swine viruses found in North America, Asia and Europe.

CDC flu chief Dr. Nancy Cox said the good news is "we do not see the markers for virulence that were seen in the 1918 virus." Nor does swine flu virus have the virulence traits found in the H5N1 strain of bird flu seen in recent years in Asia and other parts of the world, she said.

"However we know that there is a great deal that we do not understand about the virulence of the 1918 virus or other influenza viruses," that caused serious illnesses, she said. "So we are continuing to learn."

Another CDC official, Dr. Anne Schuchat, said preliminary studies suggest that in U.S. households with an infected person, about a quarter of other family members are getting sick as well. Generally, for seasonal flu, between 5% and 20% of those exposed to the virus get sick, depending on the setting. In some pandemics, the rate has been as high as 35%, Dr. Cox said.

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IJ
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Post by IJ »

While people are recommending the N95 masks (filter out very small things; good seal, if quality /fitted to the wearer) flu is spread via droplet (contrast tuberculosis, spread by aerosol). So those masks WILL filter out flu, and in theory, someone has to be within 8 feet or so to cough a droplet on you, whereas aerosols can float down the hall. You would just have to constantly think "ok the mask is remind me NOT to touch my face" but that's just not well performed by people.

Another thing they don't do well is wash their hands. Handwashing is swell (provided you don't have to do it 2 dozen times a day; causes dermatitis and weakens yours barrier defense) but you're supposed to do it WELL, covering all areas of the hand, and soaping long enough to sing the alphabet song (yeah, right). Definitely something I'd do after possible exposure but not probably all day long.
--Ian
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Post by IJ »

Now I can say I have first hand experience with swine flu. A coworker gave it to me. We shared a common office space and she came in to work sick for a week (was reluctant to call in backup, because backup had an infant that would need ASAP daycare--doesn't that mean she wasn't really backup? But anyway...) I had a temp over 102, my resting heart rate was 105, and I lost 7 pounds, partly dehydration not because I had GI symptoms but because I didn't want to walk 15 feet to the refrigerator. Jiujitsu 10-14 days later? I was as gentle as a kitten. Laying on people made ME tired. This was a big reminder that people don't get the flu 5 times a season. The real flu, influenza, can kick your butt and circulates seasonally such that you probably have it no more than once. And I really understood how the very young, old, and sick might not pull through. It's variable, though--she worked through it, pregnant; there was no way I could have helped anyone by the second day.

I learned coincidentally today:

From our infection control people: they're likely to institute penalties for people who come to work sick. So that people like me don't lose a week of their lives. There's a spike in diagnosed cases well over what was seen seasonally in february, and it is basically all H1Ni. That said, the death rate is LESS than seasonal flu on average after you factor in the widespread lack of resistance. There are initial Danish reports of Tamiflu resistant H1N1 but none here. Prophy and treatment are still advised.

And from the coworker: she had a negative rapid swab but a positive DFA. She only heard after she was recuperating and long after treatment could have helped her.
--Ian
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Bill Glasheen
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Post by Bill Glasheen »

IJ wrote:
Now I can say I have first hand experience with swine flu. A coworker gave it to me.
Glad you are better, Ian. Now... EAT SOMETHING! :lol:

For what it's worth... I THINK my oldest son got H1N1. There were reported cases at his high school - right after he was very sick for about 5 days. I didn't bother taking him in for testing, because most folks around here (including my friend the state health commissioner) are saying it isn't worth wasting the Tamiflu. It was bad, but not the worst bug my oldest son ever got. And nobody else in the house got it. We were careful in the house and took all the normal precautions.

We were lucky. He had completed almost all his exams before he got sick. And he took the last two while on the mend, and did fine.

The good news for Ian - and maybe my son - is that protection is now there if H1N1 comes back stronger next year. Meanwhile, the rest of us eagerly await the vaccine.

- Bill
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Post by Kuma-de »

Sorry for the late response to this thread, but have been busy as of late.

Part of the National Security Plan there are several "National Response Teams" that have experts from the CDC, area Teaching Hospitals and the like that can respond to any area of the country in case of an outbreak.

In addition to the aforementioned anti-virals mentioned that are available via your local pharmacy, etc. there are Strategic National Stockpiles (SNS) that can be delivered via a C-130 or a Sokorsky Helicopter to any of the various regions within the country as needed all within 12 hours of the requests.

These national stockpiles are loaded with thousands of dosages of anti-virals and such drugs like antibiotics, and other drugs that would effect such things like anthrax, ricin or other oft used terrorist weapons.

Read more here: http://www.bt.cdc.gov/stockpile/
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Kuma-de
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New H1N1 flu not going away: U.S. health agency

Post by Kuma-de »

New H1N1 flu not going away: U.S. health agency
Fri Jun 26, 2009 7:39pm EDT

http://reuters.com

By Julie Steenhuysen

CHICAGO (Reuters) - More than 1 million people in the United States may have been infected with the new H1N1 swine flu, U.S. health officials said on Friday, and infections continue to rise.

The new H1N1 influenza virus that has triggered a global pandemic is infecting people in the United States well beyond the normal period for influenza season, Dr. Anne Schuchat of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told reporters in a telephone briefing.

"The key point is this new infectious disease is not going away," Schuchat said. "In the U.S., we're still experiencing a steady increase in the number of reported cases, with 6,000 new cases reported just this week."

That represents the largest number of cases to be reported in a one-week span since the beginning of the outbreak in April.

The World Health Organization is now reporting more than 67,000 confirmed cases of H1N1 flu and some 300 deaths worldwide.

In the United States, there have been 27,717 laboratory-confirmed cases, including more than 3,000 hospitalizations and 127 deaths.

"We are estimating about a million people in the U.S. or more have gotten this virus at a time of year when people really aren't continuing to get the seasonal influenza viruses," Schuchat said.

"A big question that everybody really has is what kind of illness, hospitalization and deaths will we see when our winter flu season begins?"

'NOVEL VACCINE'

Schuchat said vaccine makers are developing H1N1 vaccine that will be tested in clinical trials over the summer.

She said the CDC has not yet decided if it will recommend people get the new shots when flu season in arrives in North America in the fall. But Schuchat said the CDC is asking state and local health departments to draw up plans for how to handle distribution of the vaccines.

"We want states to be ready to offer and administer this novel vaccine," she said, focusing especially on how to reach younger people, pregnant women and people with underlying health conditions like asthma and diabetes that put them at higher risk.

At a three-day meeting in Atlanta of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, which advises the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC researchers said one vaccination scenario could include as many as 600 million doses.

That could place a heavy burden on cash-strapped health departments, which would likely have to distribute two doses of the new vaccine, which might be required for full immunity, in addition to the regular seasonal flu vaccination program.

Schuchat said the CDC continues to watch for changes in the virus in the Southern Hemisphere, where flu season is now in full swing.

"We have not seen any changes in the virus that are important at this point," she said.

In the United States, the new flu continues to spread, with 12 states reporting widespread flu activity, something Schuchat said was "very unusual for this time of year."

"That is just one feature that helps us to see that what we are seeing is quite different," she said.

She said flu infections are even affecting children attending camps in the Northern Hemisphere summer, with outbreaks in 34 camps in 16 states.

"Some have actually closed for the summer."

(Editing by Xavier Briand)
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Bill Glasheen
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Post by Bill Glasheen »

Actually I am heartened by this news. If a million people have gotten this influenza and we aren't seeing the deaths, then the population is slowly building up "herd immunity" with no dire consequences. That's a good thing.

Need 2 doses for full immunity? Oye! And that's on top of getting the typical trivalent (3 different strain) seasonal influenza vaccine. That's a lot of trips to the doctor.

- Bill
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f.Channell
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Post by f.Channell »

Just wanted to bump this up as I've heard on the news of some young people with no prior illnesses dying.
Anyone hear anything??

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