Abuse of Hick's Law

[Van Canna]

folks think that traditionalists who do just KATA are stuck in the mud , but this seemed to say to me that the "modern day" tactical thinkers are also stuck in the mud.

It depends…or yes and no.

Well, let’s take a look at Taleb:

How does understanding the black swan inform our understanding of maneuver conflict? Consider the martial arts version of the Ludic Fallacy offered by Mark Spitznagel.

Here he goes into ‘playful competition’

Organized competitive fighting trains the athlete to focus on the game and, in order not to dissipate his concentration, to ignore the possibility of what is not specifically allowed by the rules, such as kicks to the groin, a surprise knife, et cetera.

So those who win the gold medal might be precisely those who will be most vulnerable in real life. (Black Swan, pg. 127)

John Boyd leads us to understand that conflict is often a non-cooperative contest for limited resources by novelty generating agents. Novelty is the black swan of conflict.

[Van Canna]

This is true for martial artists who believe that the attributes developed in traditional training … [kata] and strategies of competition are all that is needed to feel secure from the black swan. To wit

When we become convinced that our side will win on the basis of strength or numbers, when we believe that the other side will follow our rules of engagement, we will be exposed to cruel novelty.

This is precisely what Chet Richards describes as a disease of orientation called fixation: “…attachments to appearances, conclusions, institutional positions, dogmas, ideologies — pretty much anything that keeps the people inside the organization from recognizing that the world is changing or being changed by competitors.”

I have argued against those fixations for years on my forum.

And if the tactical trainers thought likewise, then I would have to agree with Ray.

But Good traditional martial arts teachers make no such claims. And this goes for good modern tactical trainers as well.

Do a search on John Farnam and Clint Smith of Thunder Ranch. No promises of success against the black swan concept is ever made by these professionals.

John's latest book, "Guns & Warriors" is filled with lessons about the defensive use of firearms to prepare you to live in a world that is becoming more dangerous by the day.

DTI Quips were written by John Farnam to provide his students with short and accessible references about defensive shooting.

Learn from others mistakes and be prepared to act because "When it's least expected, you're elected!"

Here’s your black swan reference.


http://www.defense-training.com/quips/05Mar08.html

Saturday, he was working alone when a man knocked on his front door. The moment he opened the door, the man pushed his way in and immediately starting striking the resident in the head the beck with a metal tool, probably a hammer or wrench, all the time screaming, 'Where's the money!'

The resident, unarmed and untrained, put up no effective resistance and, as a direct result, suffered several severe cuts to his face and head and wells ....broken facial bones.

The suspect ultimately threw him out of the house and onto the front lawn, closed the door, and then ransacked the house, apparently looking for valuables.


Here is yet another example of a naive, clueless, unprepared VBC who could not bring himself to believe that anything like this could ever happen to him.

He is lucky to have lived through it, but he is going to have to endure months of hospitalization and painful recovery and, in addition, is likely to suffer permanent disfigurement/disablement."

Lesson: "Bad luck" is what happens when unpreparedness collides with opportunity!

Here Taleb provides us with the answers to this riddle

How do we escape the tyranny of the black swan?

We have to learn to do at least two things. First, we have to learn how to really learn; always looking for disconfirming evidence to the self-justifying narratives we generate from the first cousins of confirmation & my-side bias, availability bias, and anchoring that keep us from considering a wide range of possible outcomes, their appropriate degrees of likelihood, and their consequences.

We have to learn that images in the mirror tell us scant little about the road ahead. To do this, next, we have to learn how to properly discern systems governed by the laws of Mediocristan from those governed by the laws of Extremistan, and act accordingly.

And:

Taleb

To defend ourselves against black swans, general knowledge is a crucial first step.

The focus of the investigation should not be on how to avoid any specific black swan, for we don't know where the next one is coming from. The focus should be on what general lessons can be learned from them.

Learning the ‘general lessons’ as Bill Glasheen and Rory set forth is the ‘How to train’ to meet these challenges with some degree of success.

‘General knowledge’ must be defined as a well rounded defensive ….self protection… study…that encompasses the tools and attributes of TMA in combination with tactical and strategic components under qualified teachers in both.

Mike concludes correctly

Ray, It's a common problem everywhere. Supposedly one of the biggest problems that the USASF/Green Beret's have is trying to keep unconventional warfare unconventional.

Seems there's always someone up the chain trying to codify what they do and put it in a box so it can be pulled out again and again for that same situation, at least that's the idea. Most of us are busy looking for specific answers to specific problems instead of as Taleb says looking for the general.

[JimHawkins]

look at the "Son of Sam slayings"...the conjecture was that " Son of Sam" was the son of America ( Uncle Sam)....and as he had slain young women with blonde hair.......he had somehow been betrayed by a young woman with blonde hair when he had been serving his country, as in war ( vietnam).....howvever the truth was somehow different............Sam was his dog.who had been giving messages to him from God .and he was not a veteran but a postal worker..........possibly random

That happened in my back yard.. Didn't they eventually crack the code and figure out his pattern? Which I thought was kids making out in cars?

Mike,

I think the errors in siting sources is marginal in terms of problems.. The idea gleaned from Hick was to simplify and unify what you do IMO and I think that is correct.

Beyond that IMO it's about the marketing of modern combatives which will continue to look to science to validate and inform.

In the end I think there are good examples of existing TMA methods that address much of what science has shown us and is yet to show us..

[Van Canna]

Hick’s law concepts, to be of any practical value in self protection defensive engagements, must relate to defense reaction time on the street.

How do we get to the workable defensive reaction time under the stress of a street attack?

Here is Hoch

"Currently, the best explanation is provided by psychologist Gary Klein in Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions.

He's proposed that the human brain is capable of multi-tasking. Gary's theory works like this: A visual image is picked up by the retina and is transmitted to the visual center of the brain in the occipital lobe.

From there the image is sent to two locations in the brain. On the one hand, it goes to the higher levels of the cerebral cortex which is the seat of full conscious awareness.

There, in the frontal lobes, the image is available to be recognized, analyzed, input into a decision process and acted upon as the person considers appropriate.

Let's call this "the slow track," because full recognition of the meaning of a visual image, analyzing what it represents, deciding what to do and then doing it takes time. Some psychologists also refer to this mental process as System II cognition.

If you used System II cognition in critical situations like a skid, you wouldn't have enough time to finish processing the OODA Loop before your car went over the cliff.

Fortunately, there's a second track, which we'll call "the fast track," or System I Cognition. In this system, the image is also sent to a lower, pre-conscious region of the brain, which is the amygdala. This area of the brain stores visual memory and performs other mental operations as well.

The visual image is compared here on a pre-conscious level at incredible speed with many thousands of images that are stored in memory.

Let's call each image a "frame" which is a term that Dr. Erving Goffman used in his book Frame Analysis to describe specific, cognitively-bounded sets of environmental conditions.

I like to use the word "frame" here because the memory probably contains more than just visual information.

There may be sound, kinesthetic, tactile, olfactory and other sensory information that also helps complement the visual image contained within the frame -

fortunately, the fast and slow tracks are usually complimentary, one focusing on insight, the other on action. Together they produce a synergistic effect that enhances the actor's chances of survival.

But even though these two tracks are complimentary, we know that some people seem to be much more skilled than others at integrating System 1 and System 2.

These especially competent individuals seem to resolve critical situations and also adapt to rapid changes in those situations.

They invent routines they have never before performed and act in a fluid, seamless manner without employing full focal awareness."

[Van Canna]

So what makes these individuals more competent than others?

So at this point in our understanding, we have newer models discovered and developing that tell us something about how the brain can operate on two tracks Hoch

It seems like the last 8 decades, Hick's Law has become a legacy of evolving research.

But, Hick's Legacy is really telling us to train more and smarter, not necessarily to be stupid and learn less.

Remember one of Einstein's Laws apply also - “Keep it simple…but not too simple.” I like the sound of that much better than stupid instructors KISSING me to keep things stupid.

And still we learn more. Dr M. Blackspear of the Brain Dynamics Center at the University of Sydney Australia reports that the: "...study of functional inter- dependences between brain regions is a rapidly growing focus of neuroscience research.

This endeavor has been greatly facilitated by the appearance of a number of innovative methodologies for the examination of neurophysiological and neuroimaging data."

This Blackspear statement was made about the amazing new discoveries in 2005 and of how fast, repeat HOW FAST the healthy, human brain changes and adapts "on the fly" (which is the medical, catch phrase for such studies on this now).

People select and change options "mid-flight" in milliseconds split into milliseconds.

ANYONE quoting Hick's Law today as a main basis for training, needs to open up an elementary school science book written since the year 2000, to see it is a decrepit, misleading and unraveled concept. They need to know the rest of the science since the 1950s.


Scientists at Johns Hopkins and the National Cancer Institute have found a "missing link" brain chemical that rises and falls quickly in response to stress, fear or an upbeat mood, and then sculpts nerve circuits in the brain accordingly.

[Van Canna]

We see the key here:

Their report, on work done appears in the Dec. 21, 1999 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

Further, because research at Hopkins and elsewhere shows that BDNF levels vary with subject's experience as it goes down in stressful situations...

."BDNF has all the right features to be the critical signal by which environmental and psychosocial interactions impact on the brain," says neuropathologist Dr. Vassilis E. Koliatsos.

"It's very rapid, it's sensitive, and it affects a system critical for emotional life and behavior.”What we believe we've found is a link between what happens to a person on a daily basis and the way the brain responds, from an emotional standpoint, over the long term.


“But we don't really have a good idea of how the two levels interact, except to say that the interaction is very fast and complex, and some people do it better than others. We really don't know everything we'd like to know.

But we do know that specific types of training can help a person develop unconscious competence, and this is enough to make some suggestions about the kind of training that will help make relatively unskilled people more competent in finding solutions to potentially violent encounters.

[Van Canna]

Dr Susan Greenfield has written The Quest For Identity In The 21st Century, in which she discusses the natural ways the human brain grows and adapts.

" I'm a neuroscientist and my day-to-day research at Oxford University strives for an ever greater understanding - and therefore maybe, one day, a cure - for Alzheimer's disease.

But one vital fact I have learnt is that the brain is not the unchanging organ that we once imagined. It not only goes on developing, changing and, in some tragic cases, eventually deteriorating with age;

it is also substantially shaped by what we do to it and by the experience of daily life.

When I say "shaped," I'm not talking figuratively or metaphorically; I'm talking literally. At a microcellular level, the infinitely complex network of nerve cells that make up the constituent parts of the brain actually change in response to certain experiences and stimuli.


The brain, in other words, is malleable. The surrounding environment has a huge impact both on the way our brains develop and how that brain is transformed into a unique human mind.

This should be self explanatory. But for many people it isn’t.

Siddle indicates that even the study of learning this subject matter is a highly complex field. Educators face a variety of social, physical and mental factors, which have an impact on the student’s ability and speed of learning critical information.

This stimulus/condition response training is best approached by the combination of TMA training and lethal force trainers, the true specialists in survival response action, who are responsible for the safety of force on force professionals using these concepts on a daily basis to remain alive in the streets.

The smart TMA student will augment his dojo skills with this specialized training and mental imagery garnered from a variety of sources.

On this website we have a forum by Dave Young
This is Dave Young's Forum:
http://forums.uechi-ryu.com/viewforum.php?f=81

Can you really bridge the gap between reality and training? Between traditional karate and real world encounters? Absolutely, we will address in this forum why this transition is necessary and critical for survival, and provide suggestions on how to do this correctly. So come in and feel welcomed, but leave your egos at the door!

Not many people have been willing to listen and work with Dave...and this alone tells the real story.

He has worked very hard at debunking delusive thinking…it would be very interesting to have Dave comment on this subject matter.

Another well learned professional would be Scott Sonnon who could avail us with the benefits of his research.

[MikeK]

Mike,

I think the errors in siting sources is marginal in terms of problems.. The idea gleaned from Hick was to simplify and unify what you do IMO and I think that is correct.

Beyond that IMO it's about the marketing of modern combatives which will continue to look to science to validate and inform.

Jim,
The problem arises when "experts" looks to science to validate and inform and they really don't know what the heck they're talking about, or even worse intentionally misuse science to validate what they are saying.

What I see happening is "A" heard something on TV and talks about it in a seminar, "B" hears it and passes it on to a group which includes "C", "D" & "E", etc with the problem being nobody ever checked if what "A" heard on TV was even correct but now we're stuck with it as fact. At this point I'll be treating all MA "experts" with a big question mark unless they can produce some of their research, findings, first hand experience or at least references to actual work that supports what they're proposing. But that's just me.

[Van Canna]

At this point I'll be treating all MA "experts" with a big question mark unless they can produce some of their research, findings, first hand experience or at least references to actual work that supports what they're proposing. But that's just me.

We have an opinion here

This is precisely what Chet Richards describes as a disease of orientation called fixation:

“…attachments to appearances, conclusions, institutional positions, dogmas, ideologies —

pretty much anything that keeps the people inside the organization from recognizing that the world is changing or being changed.

[jorvik]

Quote
"Jim,
The problem arises when "experts" looks to science to validate and inform and they really don't know what the heck they're talking about, or even worse intentionally misuse science to validate what they are saying.

What I see happening is "A" heard something on TV and talks about it in a seminar, "B" hears it and passes it on to a group which includes "C", "D" & "E", etc with the problem being nobody ever checked if what "A" heard on TV was even correct but now we're stuck with it as fact. At this point I'll be treating all MA "experts" with a big question mark unless they can produce some of their research, findings, first hand experience or at least references to actual work that supports what they're proposing. But that's just me. "
that is an excellent observation Mike.....these guys are just like Chimeisters
trying to weedle the last buck out of you by spin and deception. they don't all fall under that banner, but it is up to folks going on their courses to decypher that for themselves...sadly some don't.they think they have their crock of gold when in fact they have their crock of............... well you figure that one out
Sometimes IMHO it is better to just lift weights and punch the heavy bag at home.rather than pay money to fearmongers who really aren't that much more knowledgable than you or I.they just have a product to market

[Van Canna]

Then there are individual adaptations to all this mess...for example Neuropathologist Dr. Vassilis E. Koliatsos, states

"It's very rapid, it's sensitive, and it affects a system critical for emotional life and behavior.” What we believe we've found is a link between what happens to a person on a daily basis and the way the brain responds, from an emotional standpoint, over the long term.

With me for example...based on past experiences in violent encounters _I feel that it’s far more important to lay the groundwork for a student of self preservation, to understand and come to peace with the practice that goes to intent of using unforgiving violence _ when violence happens to be the only answer.

This practice is simply the acceptance of intent…or the 'the willingness to get it done ' when the time is ripe for getting it done.

This is the mind set of the sociopath …he just gets it done…any training be damned.

I teach my students the intent to drive it home above all else, similar to pushing forward to the objective under heavy machine gun fire as we were trained in the Infantry.

Here is an example of driving it home

He says, “Hey man do you have a couple bucks?” I replied, “Not unless you take plastic.” He then says, “Well give me your f***ing wallet then,” as he produces a knife.

I had my right hand on my Glock the whole time this was going on and had it halfway out of the holster before the knife showed up.

When the knife came out I told the guy, “Calm down I’ll give you my wallet, you don’t need to use that knife. It’s only money right?”

Well, he dropped his guard long enough after saying this that I pulled my Glock out and for some reason (I still can’t explain to this day) I thrusted the gun toward the guy’s face and shoved right through his teeth!

The very best way to defeat Hick’s law.

[MikeK]

these guys are just like Chimeisters
trying to weedle the last buck out of you by spin and deception. they don't all fall under that banner, but it is up to folks going on their courses to decypher that for themselves...sadly some don't.they think they have their crock of gold when in fact they have their crock of............... well you figure that one out

Well I was thinking more along the lines of computer and business consultants, but the result is the same.

Sometimes IMHO it is better to just lift weights and punch the heavy bag at home.rather than pay money to fearmongers who really aren't that much more knowledgable than you or I.they just have a product to market

That one is tough for me because I both agree and disagree which means I'm still sorting this out. I agree that many if not most have a product to market but that in and of itself isn't a bad thing. I've benefited from some of the most knowledgeable guys out there, some of whom post here, others I've directly trained with and others through their media (books, video, etc) and while most of these people charge for some of their work they give a lot more away without asking for anything.

On the other hand I'm getting picky (and skeptical) and asking myself what each newly discovered "combat expert" (for lack of better words) brings to the table, what makes each unique (not parroting the other 10 guys who are parroting the other 10 guys in a loop) and how locked into what they're selling they are (if they made a mistake in their material they publicly admit to it and adjust their teaching, rather than continuing in error).
But once again, that's just me.

[Van Canna]

Mike

On the other hand I'm getting picky (and skeptical) and asking myself what each newly discovered "combat expert" (for lack of better words) brings to the table, what makes each unique (not parroting the other 10 guys who are parroting the other 10 guys in a loop) and how locked into what they're selling they are (if they made a mistake in their material they publicly admit to it and adjust their teaching, rather than continuing in error).
But once again, that's just me.

Fair questions that beget more questions_

These ‘experts’ include rational martial arts teachers as well….am I correct in reading it this way from the posts here?

At this point I'll be treating all MA "experts" with a big question mark unless they can produce some of their research, findings, first hand experience or at least references to actual work that supports what they're proposing. But that's just me

MA “experts” then include traditional martial arts teachers of any system_ How would we go about getting all of the above from a style of karate and their senior teachers?

But then we must ask ourselves the questions: what are the people most at risk on a daily basis, such as police and bodyguards etc. _ schooled in and by whom …and what have they used, are they using as a base training and concepts to stay alive day in and day out….and out of jail…

Karate students rarely get into fights…most of us are aware enough to remain safe and not do stupid things that would place us at risk. So we really don’t have a meaningful ‘data base’ of experience.

Think of these people at risk…think of the departments that employ them…what are these organizations looking for in the way of training for their people…and why?

What has proven to work in the mean streets for these people and why?

How does the FBI train and why? Who trains them?

And what would qualify any of us to pass judgment on professional, published trainers?

All fair questions.

[Van Canna]

Another paper that addresses this subject is: The Anatomy Of Fear and How It Relates To Survival Skills Training.

The author is Darren Laur (Copyright 2002). He is a Canadian police officer.

His article reinforces the information in the article above, and also adds to it by a discussion of the neuroscientific research of fear, and its relationship to survival skills training?

Basically there are two ways, or pathways, which can be used in dealing with the emotion of fear.

One is where the..., "action can be based on conscious will and thought. This pathway appears to take effect during "progressive" types of fear stimuli.

Here a combatives student will be able to apply stimulus/response type training using the OODA model having regards to gross motor skills and Hick’s Law.A

second pathway is known as the "low road" which is triggered by a spontaneous/unexpected attack.

Here, the brain will take control of the body with an immediate "protective reflex" (downloaded directly to the brain stem where all of our reflexive responses to danger are stored), which will override any system of combat that bases its ability on "cognitively" applying a physical response.

This is especially true if the trained response is not congruent with the "protective reflex"....

So what can we as Instructors, coaches, and teacher do to incorporate the most current research in the field of Fear and Survival Skills Training?....

Train on the concept of "commonality of technique." The initial plan "A" strategy that I use in an unexpected spontaneous assault (be it armed or unarmed), is no different than in an attack that I do see coming.

Why, because no matter if the brain goes "high road" or "low road", my "congruent" gross motor skills will work in both paths. This is a definite tactical advantage.

Understand that although the "low road" reflexive motor responses cannot be changed, they can be "molded" to fit a combative motor skill technique that are useable during a spontaneous attack.

I use the Somatic Reflex Potentiation response, which I call "penetrate and dominate," in all my programs. Tony Blauer uses the flinch response in his SPEAR system. Richard Dimitri also incorporates the flinch in his training at Senshido."

[MikeK]

Van,
I wasn't asking any questions but just stating what I look at when encountering a newly discovered "combat expert", but I'll bite and give my opinions...

Think of these people at risk…think of the departments that employ them…what are these organizations looking for in the way of training for their people…and why?

If any training at all I'd say cheap and fast because of budgets and keeping feet on the street.

What has proven to work in the mean streets for these people and why?
Are you saying there is a universal course of study that has proven to work 100%?

How does the FBI train and why? Who trains them?

Last I heard it was pretty much the FBI that trains the FBI, but I'll double check with the folks I know there. BTW, extra "?" for anyone who markets themselves as trainers to SEALs, Delta, DEA, etc. If they can produce a curriculum, training dates, was it official or after hours, and how many hours for each course taught I'd consider it.

And what would qualify any of us to pass judgment on professional, published trainers?

Did their published works go through an actual rigorous peer review process, what criteria makes them professional and what puts them above being questioned? In my field many a career has been done in by listening to published professionals. At what point was questioning these people verbooten? If we get into the habit of not ever questioning what we're being told by those "who are in the know" then we'll accept anything that we're told. Heck if none professionals and the un-published can find holes in the work of the P&P's then what does that say about them?

I am not saying that these guys aren't good at what they do or knowledgeable, but they are not at a level where their every word should be taken as fact/law/word of God without question. [/quote]