Global warming my butt...

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Bill Glasheen
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Post by Bill Glasheen »

All of this makes more sense, BTW, when the price of energy goes up. Demand for hybrids wax and wane the same as real estate prices in Houston. Ultimately gas will be much, much more expensive for everyone. It's only a matter of time.

Those driving inefficient vehicles are living on borrowed time the same way those who drove big gas guzzlers did before the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s.
Ian wrote:
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but isn't it the MONEY from the oil, and not the oil, that these nuts want? Bin Laden didn't finance his network with gas, he did it with american (etc) $ spent on that gas.
Bin Laden's money which he and other Middle-Easterners use to finance terrorism comes from oil revenue. That oil will be bought - one way or another. It's best to see it in the hands of stable governments if we can at all help it.

Americans made it very clear decades back (during the Arab Oil Embargo) that they were willing to go to war for oil. Right or wrong, they will get pissing mad when/if the price of oil skyrockets from Middle Eastern shenanigans or some other dimwit uses his boneheaded religious nut teachings to torch us.

Feelings about this wax and wane. 9/11 shows just how fast American feelings can turn.

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Post by RACastanet »

) Regen sales has gone up pretty steadily, and the technology is getting more prevalent and cheaper as a result. (Economies of scale.)
They are?
Given all the buzz about hybrids, not to mention the greening of the citizenry, you'd think they would be easy to sell. They're not. After growing nicely through much of 2006, hybrid sales began to slow early this year. The gasoline-electric vehicles now make up 1.8% of all vehicle sales, says Edmunds.com, down from a peak of 2.1% in October.
You just can't get enough hydrogen in a typical vehicle and get 300 mile range -
True today. But I believe in the future of technology as much as you do. It is coming.
That isn't a hybrid vehicle, but even they are using regen.
Yes, but the added complexity is there. Somewhere in the system there is an electromechanical rotating machine gathering up those KWs and a power semiconductor converter putting the KWs to work.
Basically all the technology now demanded by consumer and safety concerns have upped the electrical requirements in vehicles steadily over the last few decades.
I do not know who demanded all of this. Are we so lazy that we need power windows? Power door locks? Do we all need a BOSE (TM) 300 watt stereo system in our cars? Talk about wasting energy and creating distractions. A 300 watt audio amp requires close to a gross HP. A 30 amp circuit.

Why do we need electric seat warmers? Another 30 amp circuit. The auto electrical system is being built so that it can handle the worst case of everything on at once! That 150 amp alternator, the switches, circuit breakers, multiple #10 copper wiring harnesses all add weight that must be hauled around.
Somewhere, somehow, you need the power plants to produce the H2 stored energy.
This is true. But as Ian has stated the electricity required by the electrolosis process can come from new, zero emission nuclear plants (I am betting on this option), hydro, wind etc. Or clean technology coal fired plants... they are coming, and the US has a lot of coal.

I spent decades helping to design, build, start-up, troubleshoot, repair massive (and I mean massive) industrial facilities where my job/butt was on the line when the switch was turned on (some plants actually made me pull that big lever in the powerhouse) so I know of what I speak.

The number one enemy of cost, reliability and efficiency was complexity. I spent countless hours fighting with highly intelligent and educated consultants that never actually worked in a manufacturing facility, or had to maintain and operate what they designed. The fascination with bells and whistles was the downfall of most of them and I had the great pleasure of seeing their firms being fired on the site and walked off by security. A few were sued for consequential damages. Out would come all of my documentation showing my recommendations and that pretty much closed the door on them.
And it's likely the only way you'll get high amperage electricy on demand (needed for torque and fast starts) and range.
No. Electric machines can be built for very short term, high output duty cycles. It is quite common to build an electrical drive with a 300% short term rating. The starter motor on your current car has a 600%, 10 second duty cycle. Batteries too. Also fuel cells. And, unlike the internal combustion engine, electric motors can produce full torque at ZERO speed. No, it does not take an elecrical drive much to blow away an internal combustion engine when it comes to accelleration. Why do you think railroad locomotives use electric drive trains instead of just connecting the 4,000hp diesel to the axles?
They're talking about a really nice engine coming in the Cherokee. That just might make me buy an SUV.
Now you are talking.
And don't be surprised to find a little regen in these new diesels to support the electronics. It's only a matter of time.
I hope not. that feature alone would take it off of my 'buy' list.

Rich
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Post by Bill Glasheen »

I know you probably hate all this complexity, Rich, because you can't repair it in your garage. C'est la vie. As much as you hate it, it keeps increasing.

Germans kept resisting it as well. They lost loads and loads in sales from the same attitute. Cup holders? You're not supposed to be drinking coffee when you drive. You don't need cup holders!!! Americans said "Fine!" and went elsewhere. The consumer wins in the end, Rich. As a boss of mine used to say about health insurance benefits, "If the consumer wants tail fins, we will build them tail fins."

Argue all you want about that plot I just posted. It is a reality.
Rich wrote:
No. Electric machines can be built for very short term, high output duty cycles. It is quite common to build an electrical drive with a 300% short term rating. The starter motor on your current car has a 600%, 10 second duty cycle. Batteries too. Also fuel cells. And, unlike the internal combustion engine, electric motors can produce full torque at ZERO speed. No, it does not take an elecrical drive much to blow away an internal combustion engine when it comes to accelleration. Why do you think railroad locomotives use electric drive trains instead of just connecting the 4,000hp diesel to the axles?
You argue best when you argue my point, Rich.

You do not want to hook a fuel cell straight up to the engine. It doesn't produce electrons quickly enough. And the H2 storage always will be a rate-limiting step. You may be happy along with the greenies driving around in your little toy car with ultra efficiency. But the suburbanites need vans to cart the family around. That means you need to have a reserve of electrons to get all that mass going.
Rich wrote:
Bill wrote:
That isn't a hybrid vehicle, but even they are using regen.


Yes, but the added complexity is there. Somewhere in the system there is an electromechanical rotating machine gathering up those KWs and a power semiconductor converter putting the KWs to work.
My God, Rich. An electromechanical rotating machine is complex? A semiconductor converter complex? Sheesh...

We aren't building power plants, Rich. We're building vehicles that consumers want to throw away every half dozen years or so. And they have much more tolerance for down time. They've obviously voted with their dollars already.

Meanwhile... The very naysayer article you posted - written when the price of oil has temporarily plummeted - says it all.
At least 30 hybrids will hit the market in the next 20 months. That will bring the number to more than 40, up from 12 today, says Boston research firm Global Insight. "Now that the automakers have tapped the early adopters, they're going after the mass market,"

Wow... And this is the technology that you said would never make it??? :wink:

Do you know what that means? Better prices for the consumer. Economies of scale. More competition = higher quality and better choices.

Sounds good to me! 8)

It's like those bleeding edge computers that the gamers and geeks get. The rest of us wait until all the bugs shake out and the price drops. Then they jump on board.

And those computers aren't getting any less complex either! ;)

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Post by Bill Glasheen »

I'm still waiting for you to accept my wager on the growth of regen. I need you to take it before the very article you cited causes you to realize I'm already right. ;)

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Post by RACastanet »

I'm still waiting for you to accept my wager on the growth of regen. I need you to take it before the very article you cited causes you to realize I'm already right.
Sure, but we need to decide on the parameters.
You do not want to hook a fuel cell straight up to the engine. It doesn't produce electrons quickly enough.

That is absolutely incorrect. A direct connection is the planned design.

To whit:
And unlike an electric car with its cumbersome batteries and limited juice, hydrogen is a very good energy carrier," according to Brad Bates, manager of the alternative fuels program at the Ford Motor Co.

Utilizing space technology, the hydrogen car doesn't rely on combustion. And it has hardly any moving parts.
The vehicle will have a bank of fuel cells connected directly to the electrical drive system. There will likely be a fairly standard battery in there as well to power auxiliary devices when the fuel cell is not engaged.

Your idea of the fuel cell vehicle as a complex product is not what car companies are designing. Do a litle more research. You seem to be trapped in the regen paradigm.
And the H2 storage always will be a rate-limiting step.
That is true today, but researchers are making progress. Ever hear of a 'buckyball'?

You may be happy along with the greenies driving around in your little toy car with ultra efficiency. But the suburbanites need vans to cart the family around. That means you need to have a reserve of electrons to get all that mass going.
Nope, not me. I have two high hp, high torque V8s in the driveway.

The simple hydrogen drive will be a head snapper.
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
At least 30 hybrids will hit the market in the next 20 months. That will bring the number to more than 40, up from 12 today, says Boston research firm Global Insight. "Now that the automakers have tapped the early adopters, they're going after the mass market,"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Wow... And this is the technology that you said would never make it???
That is taken out of context. From the same BWeek article read on...

Cutting costs further requires achieving those elusive economies of scale, which means building and selling more hybrids. That's Toyota's strategy; it hopes to sell 160,000 Priuses this year, up from 107,000 in 2006.

Pulling that off will require deft marketing, especially since the government this fall will start requiring a more accurate measure of fuel economy. The Prius' claimed 55 mpg will likely drop to a less compelling 46 mpg. Both Toyota and Ford are planning major advertising campaigns. And discounts on all hybrids are here to stay for a while.

Look closely and you can see the automakers hedging their bets. Toyota is pushing into diesel. Ditto for Honda, which may not build a new hybrid Accord. Nissan (NSANY ) is waiting to see how its hybrid Altima does before putting the technology into other vehicles.
My God, Rich. An electromechanical rotating machine is complex? A semiconductor converter complex? Sheesh...
There is a lot more involved. The electronic circuitry is quite complex. Every component you add to a system is one more potential failure point. The regen system adds hundreds of additional potential failure points. Question: How reliable has the electronics been in you hi-tech heating system? And that thing just sits there.
We aren't building power plants, Rich. We're building vehicles that consumers want to throw away every half doz
And they have much more tolerance for down time.
en years or so. They've obviously voted with their dollars already.
I do not know anyone who throws their car away every half dozen years. What circle of people do you associate with that can toss $20k to $25 k away every six years. I live in a pretty upscale area and I do not see that practice. How old are your vans? Why didn't you throw them away?
And they have much more tolerance for down time
Is that true for a health care professional?
Someone hauling his kids to school in all sorts of bad weather?

GE built the drive systems at the Salem plant to what we called 'five nines' reliability, sort of a simpler way of saying six sigma. In effect the uptime had to be 99.999% minimum. As a result a variable speed drive on a steel rolling mill that would cost a company about $50,000 revenue per hour of downtime would cost at least that much. You are correct that consumers do not want to pay for that but I do not believe you would be tolerant of even 'three nine' reliability. Every additional nine can increase the cost by an order of magnitude.

Back to you. You are doing a great job of making my case.

Rich
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Post by RACastanet »

I know you probably hate all this complexity, Rich, because you can't repair it in your garage. C'est la vie. As much as you hate it, it keeps increasing.
That is an accurate observation about me. Vehicles are becoming black boxes with quite a few non-user-servicable components. The dealers love this. This is going to greatly increase the cost of maintaining a vehicle. Many of the components are going to be proprietary products that independent service shops will not be able to deal with.

A lot of people are not going to be able to afford to keep their vehicles maintained. And in some cases, when the hybrid car's brain goes it will be dead in the water. This has happened to the Prius.

The pure hydro car will be pretty simple compared to current vehicles. I hope someday I can own one. I'll park it between my Tahoe and my Corvette!

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Post by Bill Glasheen »

Rich

There are a number of problems with your arguments.

First... Show me the data showing that a regen free fuel cell system will pull a van at respectable speeds/acceleration and get a 300 mile range.

Second... Much has been written about the inefficiencies of hydrogen production and storage. If you're going to nanotechnology and buckyballs (yes, I heard of them 20 years ago...) to store hydrogen in the car, then why piss away all that energy going from electrons to hydrogen? (Any other method is not carbon neutral. It cheats by using fossil fuels.) It's easier to store electrons in exotic technologies than it is to store hydrogen atoms in the same. And if that's the case, then we're back to Ian's battery-powered (electron driven) car.

The present H2 technology uses metal hydrides, and that will not get a van 300 miles. Better efficiency might. In other words, we're back to regen.

Rich wrote:
There is a lot more involved. The electronic circuitry is quite complex. Every component you add to a system is one more potential failure point. The regen system adds hundreds of additional potential failure points. Question: How reliable has the electronics been in you hi-tech heating system? And that thing just sits there.
I'm not sure what my heating system has to do with anything. But it is both reliable and redundant. (I can heat with either natural gas or electrons).

Take a look at computers by year. What's the number of transistors per computer in each year? (They go up orders of magnitude.) What about built in capabilities? Do these devices get less reliable? (Mine don't)

Regen is not complicated; it's yesterday's technology. Of all people, you should know that, Rich. You're the power guy, right?

Fuel cells are complicated. Storing enough hydrogen to make an average family van go 300 miles is complicated. By comparison, regen is an afterthought.

Oh and FWIW... Nissan corporation already has such a concept fuel cell vehicle with regen. They are using Lithium-ion batteries, capable of power densities of 4 kW/kg. Industry experts are expecting these new batteries eventually to replace both lead acid and NiMH technology.

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Post by Bill Glasheen »

Here's an example of diesel hybrid technology making it into the military. This is a slightly different hybrid concept, but one I'm sure you'd be familiar with.

From Wards Auto...
FEV Shows High-Efficiency 2-Stroke Diesel
Bill Visnic and Tom Murphy
Ward's AutoWorld, May 1, 2005 12:00 PM
The U.S. Army Tank Automotive Research, Development and Engineering Center's (TARDEC) latest innovation hints at the hybrid future of the military.

TARDEC's National Automotive Center's (NAC) 4-passenger 4-wheel-drive diesel-electric MP Hybrid concept, which is designed for non-tactical medium-speed applications, is powered by a 6.7-hp (5-kW) diesel engine-generator that lifts out from under the hood and can power small electric devices.

The generator boasts five times the power density of conventional units and five times greater specific power, with an engine that has 40% fewer parts compared with conventional 4-stroke engines, NAC says.

The MP Hybrid's removable generator powers a battery pack beneath the vehicle, which powers two 10-hp (7.5-kW) electric motors driving the wheels.
Joining the MP Hybrid military vehicle is a 4WD “civilian” version derived from the same architecture. It uses a small 18-hp diesel engine (0.78 L) and an electric motor to drive the wheels. Both vehicles' powertrains are interchangeable.

The MP Hybrid significantly reduces fuel consumption for non-tactical vehicles that operate away from battle zones.Until additional testing is complete, officials decline to estimate the hybrids' fuel economy, but they say the development target was 50 mpg (4.7 L/100 km).

Joining NAC on the project were California Motors LLC, which built the prototypes, and Quantum Fuel System Technologies Worldwide Inc., which will manufacture the hybrids in volume if a contract is signed.
Advanced Propulsion Technologies Inc., in conjunction with FEV Engine Technology, designed the generator, which is about the size of a large briefcase. Its four pistons — two in each cylinder — operate under the opposed-piston, opposed-cylinder principle (OPOC), which leverages improvements to the 2-stroke cycle to generate thermal efficiency in excess of 41%.

The OPOC design, says FEV, generates extraordinary power density. A turbocharged 2-cyl. prototype generates 325 hp and 590 lb.-ft. (800 Nm) of torque at 2,000 rpm, yet weighs just 270 lbs. (123 kg).
Using a unique system of inner and outer connecting rods and cleverly positioned intake and exhaust ports, the OPOC design runs pistons in each opposed cylinder. The design causes the pistons to clamp together to develop compression and drive apart from the resulting combustion.
FEV says the design eliminates the cylinder heads and valvetrain and presents the potential to dramatically reduce manufacturing cost and servicing complexity.
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Post by RACastanet »

First... Show me the data showing that a regen free fuel cell system will pull a van at respectable speeds/acceleration and get a 300 mile range.
You are correct. It is not here yet. It will take a few years of R&D. My argument is that regen hybrids are just an incremental move to increase fuel mileage, not the revolutionary change we need. I see it as a distraction and diversion of R&D $$.
I'm not sure what my heating system has to do with anything. But it is both reliable and redundant. (I can heat with either natural gas or electrons).
I recall you once lamenting the fact that your system was down and the repair person had to jury rig some type of control system to get it running until the proper parts could be gotten. You also told me about your electronic filtering system being very good 'when it worked'. Those are relatively simple electronics in a very safe environment. Did I hear you wrong?
Regen is not complicated; it's yesterday's technology. Of all people, you should know that, Rich. You're the power guy, right?
Absolutely. The railroads have been using it for a hundred years. But under your hood it will be a 'blackbox' system.
Take a look at computers by year. What's the number of transistors per computer in each year? (They go up orders of magnitude.) What about built in capabilities? Do these devices get less reliable? (Mine don't) - See below
They are very reliable for about 4 years. Then the hard drive dies suddenly and all is lost. Last fall the power company had a surrge that went right thru my battery and arrestors and blew the power supply away. They said 'maybe' but can you document it?' Yes! As it turned out my surge/battery has a data logger and I sent them a file showing three strikes the second they occured. Cannot beat preparation. A check arrived a week later for the repair.

That aside, did you not just recently replace your PC as it was dead and unrepairable? Did you wait for 'Vista' or get another PC with XP? The only way to be secure is to have an outboard hard drive ready to dump your important data into your backup or new computer. How about printer and peripheral compatibility? Why can't a new computer with all the new smarts not talk to last year's printer? Are you going to have a backup 'regen' black box on hand to get your hybrid running? No, it will likely be towed to the dealership for a very expensive repair.

You continue to make my point for me. With complex systems there are two types of people... Those that have had downtime and those that will.

Rich
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Post by RACastanet »

We can and will debate the value of regen forever. We will likely live to see whether hybrids/regen were the revolution or just a stopover before the switch to a hydrogen economy.

That said, here is the issue unfolding with technology today...

Years ago, before about 1995, the large automakers tended to be vertically integrated. That is, they made pretty much everything on or in the car. GM had Delco, Guide, Inland divisions etc to make everything from radios to headlamps. They controlled the supply chain and always had lots of everything on hand. If a part was no longer needed and no longer in current production they could still build one in one of their in house factories.

That is not so any longer. Delco was spun off. Ford spun off Visteon. Now when a model is built some third party is contracted to make just enough of a component to meet the production schedu;le and a few spares. When that part is gone, it is gone. There is no guarantee that the supplier is even still around to make a part.

Some parts are pretty generic and a substitute part might be found somewhere. Not so the electronic circuit boards. The control components are very proprietary and often made in small volumes. What has happened is that cars less than 10 years old cannot get critical parts, such as the on board computer or the airbag assemblies.

This has led to a vigorous black market. If you look at the list of cars most often stolen you will see fairly new Hondas, Camrys and the like. They are being stolen for the hi-tech components that are no longer available. A crook with a screwdriver will often just remove the critical/valuable parts and leave a very dead car behind. This is true somewhat for some GM models but to a lesser extent as there are just so many of them out there using the same basic components.

What is going to happen is that the higher tech cars, especially those with low sales volumes, will become electronic orphans. Car companies are not going to spend the bucks to manufacture 100 units of a control board for dead 2001 Hondas or whatever. The board was likely built by a subcontractor who changed the assembly line over to some other contract once the batch was run.

I fully expect the hybrids of today will be the orphans in only about 5 years.

This is also true of many of the HDTV brands on the market now. Westinghouse is a popular low cost HDTV brand. Guess what? There is no Westinghouse except on a letterhead. They manufacture nothing. They have no factories. They contract with suppliers and builders and build lots of something and after that the model is gone. Expect no parts or tech support. This is true of Magnavox and most of the other brands. Beware of todays technology manufacturing trend when you drop the big bucks!

Industrial companies typically write down new plants and equipment over a 20 year period. An aluminum rolling mill is expected to last at least that long as supplied. GE would (at least when I was with them) guarantee parts availability for 20 years! We did not guarantee the cost, but assured customers they could keep their machine running until it was written off.

At one point not too long ago we used DEC process controllers. Anyone here even remember DEC? They practically invented the business. Whan a DEC controlled mill died GE would get a team together to find a current replacement, build an interface, and rewrite the code as required. Talk about expensive.

This will not happen when your otherwise perfectly good Prius blows the controller's motherboard 5 years after you bought it. The part will not be available period. So what Bill says about the buyers of these cars better be true as they will just have to toss the thing away. Auto insurance companies are today declaring a minimally damaged car totalled because the parts are either too costly to acquire or just not available through legit means.

Technology is great and I embrace it. Just beware before you buy what might be a passing fad. Most of us cannot afford to simply toss our cars and buy new ones as they need maintenance.

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Post by IJ »

You guys are obviously the technology buffs. Was the impression I got from a few articles on corn ethanol, the section on hydrogen in "who killed the electric car," and some other light reading that ethanol, hydrogen etc were substantially less energy efficient than electric? For example, We usually make hydrogen with electricity--why not just put that to work directly? Sure, there isn't a battery ready to refuel in seconds (most won't need that) but then, we don't have any affordable or feasible hydrogen cars or refueling infrastructure, either....
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Post by RACastanet »

we don't have any affordable or feasible hydrogen cars or refueling infrastructure, either....

There is a fleet of hydrogen buses running in DC I believe. I'll do some research later.

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Post by Bill Glasheen »

Rich wrote:
I recall you once lamenting the fact that your system was down and the repair person had to jury rig some type of control system to get it running until the proper parts could be gotten. You also told me about your electronic filtering system being very good 'when it worked'. Those are relatively simple electronics in a very safe environment. Did I hear you wrong?
Actually this example goes against the doom-and-gloom scenario you talked about above.

I had a fairly unique Polaris hot water heater that came with my home. It was highly efficient. The controller on that thing kept going out though. It was basically a defective piece of equipment.

The technician ultimately found a "generic" board that worked on countless hot water heaters. You had to read the directions to figure out which jumpers to set given the model you were working with, but it ultimately would work. The biggest problem he had was getting the board actually to fit inside the case of the HWH. But he got it working.

Ultimately that thing failed because the tank itself failed. Hmm... That would never happen to a fuel cell vehicle. :roll: :wink: I replaced it wth a Renai tankless HWH system. I couldn't be happier. Europe is ahead of the US on these things. They last twice as long as a conventional, are much more efficient, and provide hot water endlessly - to a fault. (Teenage kids will fall asleep under a shower stream.)

I've kept a lot of high tech things working past their time. My original Columbia PC had a few changes here and there made to keep it going, and upgrades were made (e.g. hard drives) to get me through my dissertation. I still have every digital file I made on that 1980s era machine.

As for changes in operating systems, advancing technologies, and obsolescence, I don't see fuel cell vehicles - when they come - being immune to this. Everything but the regen will be new technology. ;)

FWIW... A few companies are making most of the regen parts. It's kind of like VHS VCRs. I believe two companies make them all, and in extremely high volume. The 3rd party manufacturers just stamp their names on the final product.

Kinda like the software business I am in... 8)

As for when the Prius breaks down, well... They don't. They're Toyotas. The 2001 Prius has average LONG TERM mechanical dependability, and every year since then has been stellar. (JD Power)

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Post by mhosea »

Bill Glasheen wrote:(Teenage kids will fall asleep under a shower stream.)
Yours too? I was amazed--thought mine had a special talent.
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Post by Valkenar »

Bill Glasheen wrote:Take a look at computers by year. ... What about built in capabilities? Do these devices get less reliable? (Mine don't)
It usually takes 6 months or so before a new component becomes really reliable. Before that you get all sorts of irritating problems. What you get if you order a computer from major manufacturer (e.g. Dell) is parts that have been available for a while and have proven reliability. If you go order bleeding-edge OEM parts and build a computer yourself, you will find that with every generation of parts, the reliability does go down for a while.

As it relates to cars, I can envision a similar sort of dynamic. Early-adopters put up with decreased reliability, and after many of the kinks are worked out (and the price falls), the mass market will begin to adopt it.

Edit:
Incidentally, the issues you're talking about with regards to outdated part blackboxing is one of the reasons I'm against software patents. The DMCA makes it illegal to reverse engineer a digital interface. That makes the consumer completely beholden to the original manufacturer, and if they go under, or just decide that they want to force you to upgrade, you're SOL, because nobody else is legally permitted to make interoperable parts/software.
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