How expensive is gas?

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Bill Glasheen
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Post by Bill Glasheen »

The writer mistated that the battery recovers the heat energy to charge the batteries. It is actually the rotational kinetic energy.
I know, I caught that. This is what happens when communications majors don't take science courses in college.

I know what happened here. An engineer told the truth to the Ford marketing guy. It was something like 'Instead of braking converting the kinetic energy to heat, it gets converted to electrical energy which is stored in the battery.' This engineer may or may not have gotten into the details about how that happens. Generators/alternators would capture that energy and slow the car down at the same time. But by the time you go from Ford engineer to Ford marketing guy to Times Dispatch reporter, you get 'heat being converted to electrical energy.' I knew what he wanted to say...

When am I buying one? I need something sizewise inbetween a Ford Escape/Toyota Prius and a Lexus RX400h. The Escape (an AWD version) might be a good replacement when/if my wife kills her Subaru Forester. She's one of those people that needs to get to work to treat sick people no matter what the weather. She's pretty good at killing a vehicle, but so far the Subaru is lasting. That says something about Subaru, BTW. Great company. Great boxer engines w/ low COG.

I like the idea of the Lexus RX, where they keep the full power of the gas engine and add in the electric motor and batteries. It'll still get much better gas mileage, get great power, and would probably last a very long time with the engine not working so hard in the city. The experimental Durango was designed the same way, but Daimler/Chrysler is sitting on the prototype. I think they want to go beyond nickel metal hydride batteries, and go to lithium. That's a newer (and better) technology. Or...maybe they decided to go diesel like most of Europe.

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In case you listen to Rush Limbaugh and think hybrids are a plot of liberals (I kid you not...), well this article was in today's Wall Street Journal. You know, that liberal ragsheet... :lol:

This was my point all along, Rich. The demand is there. The folks at GM are IDIOTS. It reminds me of the 1970s, when the first OPEC embargo went into effect. Volkswagen made a killing with its VW Rabbit. And the American auto industry response? The Ford Pinto, and the Chevy Vega. You know, those great, memorable cars... It took them years to respond, and it gave the Japanese and German auto industries the inroads in the American auto market that they enjoy today.

Remember, today's econobox buyer is tomorrow's luxury car buyer (with the high profit margins).
Forget Rebates:
The Hybrid-Car Markup


Dealers Tack on Thousands
To Price of Prius, as Wait Lists
Grow for Fuel-Efficient Autos

By SHOLNN FREEMAN
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

June 10, 2004; Page D1

Rising gas prices are spurring consumer interest in the Toyota Motor Corp.'s fuel-saving Prius sedan, but car buyers who want one are in for a tough time.

In the latest sign that demand for the high-tech gas-and-electric car is growing, some dealers have begun tacking markups of $5,000 or more on top of the car's sticker price of $20,295 to $26,000.

With waiting lists for the vehicle now stretching six months or more, others have stopped taking deposits from interested customers. Spots on dealers' waiting lists are showing up on eBay where they are being auctioned for $500 or more.

The interest in the Prius is creating problems for Toyota. Its U.S. arm has a backlog of 22,000 orders that it cannot fill at the moment. It recently asked its Japanese headquarters for more Priuses, but is unsure how many it can get. Last fall, the U.S. allocation for the car was increased to 47,000 vehicles from 36,000. So now Toyota is yanking ads from cable television to avoid pulling into showrooms customers that it will only have to turn away.

Image
The Prius and other hybrids face tight supplies.

The Prius isn't the only hybrid facing tight supplies. Honda Motor Corp., has a 10-day supply of its hybrid-powered Civic in inventory, far fewer than the 65 days' supply that car makers like to have.

The markups on the Prius are remarkable in an era of hefty rebates on conventional cars. In May, Toyota offered an average of just under $3,000 in incentives on its vehicles, according to CNW Marketing Research of Bandon, Ore.

Shopping for a Prius recently in the Dallas area, Bill J. Kelly, a 47-year-old sign-store owner, searched online and found a dealership in Plano that agreed to take a deposit. But the dealer warned Mr. Kelly by e-mail that he'd have to pay a "fair market adjustment" of $6,000 to $8,000 on top of the car's list price of about $26,000. "People are paying a premium for these vehicles," says the Plano salesman, Mazi Talebi, in a phone interview. "This is what the market is bearing for these cars."

The rising popularity of hybrids comes against a backdrop of the recent increase in gasoline prices, which now average more than $2 per gallon in the U.S. The higher prices have had an effect on vehicle sales, particularly large SUVs, which auto makers have had to prop up with bigger and bigger incentives.

Hybrids combine a gas engine with an electric motor and, in the case of the Prius for example, are capable of getting 60 miles per gallon in some situations. First introduced in 2000, the first versions of the Prius were criticized as too small and underpowered. Still, they spawned a cultlike following among some buyers. When the 2004 model arrived with increased interior room and a peppier engine, demand took off.

A Toyota spokesman says the company started to break even on hybrids two years ago and the models are profitable now, particularly as the cars sell in greater volumes. Toyota eventually plans to build hybrids of most of its products.

Later this year, Ford Motor Co. will roll out a version of its Escape SUV powered by a hybrid engine, while Toyota will offer hybrid vehicles based on its Highlander SUV and the Lexus RX330 SUV. Nissan Motor Co. confirmed this week it will offer a hybrid version of its Altima sedan in 2006.

Honda says it's taking a wait-and-see approach before increasing its supply of hybrid vehicles. "If fuel prices go down, they'll be some reduction in demand," says Robert Bienenfeld, senior manager of product planning for Honda and Acura.

Dealers around the country are scrambling to find vehicles to sell. Daytona Toyota recently bought a 2004 Prius from a wholesaler and is auctioning the car on eBay, with a buy-it-now price of $36,450. Sales manager Brian King says the dealership gets one or two new Priuses a month that they sell for list price plus $5,000.

Mr. King attended a car auction this week in Ocoee, Fla., where four used 2004 Priuses from a rental fleet were on the block. Dealers snapped them up for $28,000 -- more than the list price of a new model.

Write to Sholnn Freeman at sholnn.freeman@wsj.com
Can you smell the money? Can you see market share trickling away, once again?

- Bill
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I do not listen to Rush much anymore as I am usually out training that time of day, so I will have to take your word for it. I need to stay acclimated to the heat.

Now, my thoughts...

What we are seeing is a classic kneejerk reaction to gasoline prices. The same emotions are what is driving up the cost of crude oil to the tune of $4 to $5 a barrel. We are in an interesting loop here.

Bill said: 'Volkswagen made a killing with its VW Rabbit.'

Yeah right! VW sold so many of those cars that they had to close down the assembly plants near Charleston, WVa and Pittsburgh, PA in the early 1980s. They almost left the US market completely. The killing done was to the local economies affected by the shutdowns. The much over-rated German mystique even has you snowed. You need to do better homework. Nope, no killing by VW, only to those in Pittsburgh, Charleston, and buyers requiring parts and service on the car.

Bill said: 'and it gave the Japanese and German auto industries the inroads in the American auto market that they enjoy today.'

Japanese yes. Germans, no. VW is again considering leaving the US market. If Audi or Porsche sold as many of their models in the US as GM sells just Buick Century's in a year it would be a breakout year for them. And, repeat buyers are turning away from the Germans due to poor quality and service. (Per JD Power's latest 3 year quality study.)

Bill quoted: "some dealers have begun tacking markups of $5,000 or more on top of the car's sticker price of $20,295 to $26,000."

"But the dealer warned Mr. Kelly by e-mail that he'd have to pay a "fair market adjustment" of $6,000 to $8,000 on top of the car's list price of about $26,000. "People are paying a premium for these vehicles,"

As W.C. Fields (or was it PT Barnum?) is reported to say, 'a sucker is born every minute'.
Paying a $5,000 premium is just plain stupid. At one extreme, if the $.50 gallon price increase triggered that response the facts do not support the decision. You would need to use 10,000 gallons of gasoline to even break even, and if the hybrid gets 40 mpg, that is 400,000 miles! That would take a driver like you, at 20,000 miles per year, 20 years. If you make the case for the other extreme, you would need to avoid buying 2,500 gallons of gas to break even. The economics are somewhere in between the two extremes but either way the payback is bad and this is a horrible waste of money. Buy a CD or US Savings bonds with the $5,000 and drive a Buick instead.

The automakers are not getting a penny of that extra $$$. The dealers are simply price gouging and taking advantage of gullible people. A fool and his money...

If the oil industry really tried to recover all of its costs and put a 20% to 25% premium surcharge on pump prices the consumers would howl for government intervention. I can see it now, price controls on hybrids...

Bill said: 'This was my point all along, Rich. The demand is there. The folks at GM are IDIOTS.'

OK, lets think about this. The demand for the hybrids is outstripping supply. Manufacturers are going to sell about 200,000 of them this year. (I'm guessing, but probably close.) The total US market for cars and light trucks and SUVs is around 15 million. So, the market share of hybrids is going to be about 1.3%.

Even if one company sold all 200,000 units the market share does not warrant even looking at the market. The true market may be 250,000 or 300,000 units, but even then we are talking 2% maximum. With the cost of tooling up and launching a new vehicle around $1 billion dollars, GM would be 'stupid' to commit a factory to them.

Ford, not on the best financial footing these days, is taking a huge chance with the Escape. What did Honda say in the article? - "Honda says it's taking a wait-and-see approach before increasing its supply of hybrid vehicles." GM is prudent. The Japan Inc companies do not have to make a profit as US companies do and can waste a few hundred million without a stockholder uprising.

The WSJ is reporting the news, and I have faith in them. But, they are doing just that, reporting on an irrational market situation. In a few years, the poor saps that paid huge premiums to buy a hybrid are going to be stuck with a vehicle with negative worth at trade in time. And, the WSJ will report that as well. And I will chuckle once again.

As for diesel, bio fuels and E85, I am all for it and will look for a vehicle with multifuel capability next time around. However, since I expect my Tahoe will be running fine until at least 2015, there will be plenty of time to sort out the technology.

And, since I like to tinker with old cars, I will likely be able to pick up a used and abandoned Prius for a song once the price gouged owner realizes what he/she did and jumps off a cliff.

Rich
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My, my, Rich. I thought you were such an avowed capitalist.

This statement in the WSJ article says it all...
Shopping for a Prius recently in the Dallas area, Bill J. Kelly, a 47-year-old sign-store owner, searched online and found a dealership in Plano that agreed to take a deposit. But the dealer warned Mr. Kelly by e-mail that he'd have to pay a "fair market adjustment" of $6,000 to $8,000 on top of the car's list price of about $26,000. "People are paying a premium for these vehicles," says the Plano salesman, Mazi Talebi, in a phone interview. "This is what the market is bearing for these cars."
Yep! The fair market value says it all. Money talks, and...

As for the volume issue you quoted, well... I sure don't think much of a company that has to discount its products so severely that the profit margins are razor thin. Size and numbers don't tell you the whole story.

And as for the rest of the cars being sold, well I believe Toyota's doing OK these days...

You like to bash the German auto industry. They deserve a few dings these days with their recent quality numbers. However they aren't the maligned industry you make them out to be. Did you catch this article in the paper yesterday?

Volkswagen announces new China factory

Image
Volkswagen is the dominant foreign automaker in China, with 30% of the market.
Frederic J. Brown, AFP/Getty Images


Ever heard of China? I hear they have a few people over there. BTW, the recent upsurge in the price of oil is largely due to the huge increase in demand by China and India. With outsourcing being fashionable and the recent administrations supporting such activities, expect to see more of this.

And you know what? There's no financing in China. The Chinese are paying cash up front for their vehicles.

Can you smell the money?

BTW, I'm all for waiting just a bit. Like you, I would buy one a year old. I got my most recent van (a courtesy transportation vehicle for a dealership) for a song, and it's got maybe another 150,000 or more life in it.

Some people like owning the latest. They want the most MIPS in their computers, and the latest model of car. This isn't "foolish" behavior, Rich. If you recall Econ 101, such things have market value. They pay to be trendsetters. And IMO (and the market), this is a for-real trend.

Thanks to those people, it makes the technology for people like us cheaper and more available. It's all about getting the volume numbers up.
A Toyota spokesman says the company started to break even on hybrids two years ago and the models are profitable now, particularly as the cars sell in greater volumes. Toyota eventually plans to build hybrids of most of its products.
That's music to my ears.

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Bill quoted: ". But the dealer warned Mr. Kelly by e-mail that he'd have to pay a "fair market adjustment" of $6,000 to $8,000 on top of the car's list price of about $26,000. "People are paying a premium for these vehicles," says the Plano salesman, Mazi Talebi, in a phone interview. "This is what the market is bearing for these cars."

Still a very bad idea. If gas prices calm down, which they will, and auto companies increase production to satisfy demand, which will not take much, the people paying these premiums will see their car's values drop like a rock. That will be a topic in the WSJ one of these days. If these dummies finance, which is likely, they will have negative worth instantly.

Bill said: 'My, my, Rich. I thought you were such an avowed capitalist'

Yep, still am. Predatory in fact. So, if there are enough dumb people with money to burn let them do it. 'Never give a sucker an even break' someone said. But, stupid is still stupid.

Bill quoted: 'Volkswagen is the dominant foreign automaker in China, with 30% of the market.
Frederic J. Brown, AFP/Getty Images '

Yes I read that yesterday. Made me chuckle and I was waiting for you to post it. The reason VW is successful over there is that the Chinese have no concept of quality in the sense the western world does. VW can be pretty shoddy and still impress the inexperienced Chinese population.

I first ran into that phenominom in the aerly 90s as the old Eastern Block countries entered the world of western consumerism. They would buy just about anything that they could afford. No idea of quality at all as they never saw any before. There was a huge rash of fires caused by Russian made TV sets in fact. No QC at all, no standards, no parts or customer service.

Russia started exporting huge quantities of aluminum ingot to get western cash and destroyed the market for years, ultimately contributing to the demise of Richmond's own Reynolds Metals Company. The ingot was crap and had to be rerolled many times to make a useful product such as a beer can. Russians used the aluminum for armored vehicles and such, and thought the stuff was good enough because a thick enough slab would stop a bullet. But in a consumer good, it was just terrible.

GE, and I, also saw many problems related to this when GE began outsourcing or moving production to sites outside of the US. Talk about garbage. It took years, for instance, to convince the Mexican work force what was needed to please the US consumer. I do not think they ever really caught on as much of the Mexican factories have since been replaced with Asian and Eastern Euro companies in recent years. Again, no concept of quality. The Asian and eastern Euro companies are so cheap to deal with that fixing quality defects is considered affordable.

Likewise, all of the US seconds sold like wildfire in the 3rd world countries. It was better than anything they ever had, or could get for that matter.

VW has found a home for its marginal product! Now that is capitalism!

Bill noted: 'quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A Toyota spokesman says the company started to break even on hybrids two years ago and the models are profitable now, particularly as the cars sell in greater volumes. Toyota eventually plans to build hybrids of most of its products. "

In Japan Inc, a break even company is acceptable and considered successful. That is what the Japanese Inc comanies are, break even companies.

Read about Mitsubishi lately? The president and top officers are going to jail for hiding safety defects that have resulted in fatal accidents. Also, Isuzu has a buyer loyalty rate of about 3%, dead last in the world. That sure is loyalty. Who is number 1? You guessed it... GM!

Bill said: 'I got my most recent van (a courtesy transportation vehicle for a dealership) for a song,'

That is a truly good idea. The largest cost of ownership is driving a new vehicle off of the lot. Last week our dishwasher died after 17 years of valiant service. I was contemplating ordering a $20 part to extend its life but went over to Best Buy too look at new ones first. Ended up taking home an 'out of the box' floor model for about half price. High tech version with an 'Energy star' rating and a digital controller. Extremely quiet as well.

Rich
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Post by Bill Glasheen »

You might ask Bruce and Van what they think of their "marginal" vehicles. Bruce has a V6 Passat, and Van recently got an AWD Passat wagon for the family.

While you are at it, check out who is driving what at what speed on the Autobahn. Also check out the European reputation for Opel vehicles and Opel drivers (Open being the GM name in Europe).

Yes, GM is number 1 - for now. What's more revealing though is the market share trend.


Watch that China market, Rich. Interesting... These are no East Europeans, used to Soviet-style technology. Remember when "Made in Japan" was a pejorative? No longer... You know full well that China is rapidly making more and more of our "quality" products. There is no comparable scenario in Russia today, or Mexico for that matter.

Frankly China makes me nervous, as does India.

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Bill said: 'Yes, GM is number 1 - for now. What's more revealing though is the market share trend.'

It has actually gone up a little. Mostly at the expense of that noted German company DaimlerChrysler. What is happening to that company? Just about everyone is breaking even or making money except them!

Bill said: 'You might ask Bruce and Van what they think of their "marginal" vehicles. Bruce has a V6 Passat, and Van recently got an AWD Passat wagon for the family.'

OK. are you guys there? How long have you had your Passats? Three years? Any comments are welcome.

I personally do not know anyone that owns a VW except for a cranky 1970 Beatle up the street. Lots of Jap inc cars though (mostly made in the US with US manufactured components). My neighbor has a Subaru and says it is reliable but finds the workmanship disappointing and will not buy another one. I see a lot of BMWs (also US made) and Volvos in my neighborhood. Two Porches (but they are weekend cars, not day to day) and a number of Volvo wagons. Mostly though, US minivans and a mix of SUVs. But, no current VWs so I cannot ask about them.

Admittedly, I know nothing of OPEL except they are GM related. One thing about cars on the autobahn, Germany's tariffs prevent much of an outside choice and favor Germany Inc vehicles. If the US put a huge tariff on non US nameplate cars that is about all that would be on the road.

Bill said: 'Frankly China makes me nervous, as does India.'

First, India does not scare me because they are limited by their own huge bureaucracy and the fact they keep 80% of their 1 Billion citizens in a permanent underclass. They are wasting a lot of talent to manual labor.

China does scare me. I believe that China's long term goal, and they are patient, be it in 100 or 1,000 years, is world domination. If they could figure out a way to get 500 million troops on our border they'd attack, and accept the loss of hundreds of millions of them as a reasonable cost. Thank goodness for the Pacific Ocean!

Fortunately they are not innovators. But, like the Japanese, they are very good imatators. Communism is such a drag though, that even with reforms they will be a third world country (and a big at that) for many decades to come.

At GE we studied them and have quietly expanded there. Lots of partnerships, licensees etc. Lots of growth expected. However, a company must be very careful investing there. A change in leadership could see everything nationalized again. Also, do not build anything over there that is proprietary as it will not be very long. So, the strategy was to build alliances and let someone else put the capital infrastructure in place... just get a share of the profits.

I believe I read in the WSJ that DaimlerChrysler's effort to build Jeeps in China was a boondoggle and has been phased back. Any info on that?

Rich
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Post by Bill Glasheen »

Rich

This article says a lot about why VW is hanging loose (for now) in the U.S. market. While one out of every two vehicles sold in Europe is a diesel and their diesel fuel is the most pure and highest cetane in the world, the U.S. is still screwing around with pollution standards and crappy fuel. If I were VW, I would wait too.

New VW diesels: Passat tops Touareg

A few noteworthy comments...
Forget the Touareg TDI. It's loud at idle, smoky on acceleration and priced near $60,000.
Interesting... This wasn't our experience. There was NO smoke, NO stink, and NO noise. Methinks this has a lot to do with the crappy diesel fuel they put into it. Cetane level is key here. What they sell at most American service stations today amounts to high sulphur tar. That's supposed to change, as you know, thanks to the government (I believe) getting on the case of the U.S. petroleum industry.

And the $60,000 price is what happens when you decide only to sell 440 of them in the states this years. That amounts to making this 5-liter V10 TDI a limited edition flagship vehicle rather than a serious entry into the market.

I'm not paying for all the extras they are adding on to those 440 vehicles to pad the price. I'll wait... :)

Nevertheless, very positive remarks about the Passat TDI. Definitely one where you get your money back in fuel costs.

And isn't this statement interesting?
Passat TDI sedan starts at $23,635, including $575 destination. VW says that's $205 more than a comparable model with 1.8-liter turbocharged gas engine. Passat TDI wagon starts at $24,675.

Kelley Blue Book says supplies are limited, demand is high, so expect to pay sticker price or more.
Once again, the market speaks!!!!

And finally, I found this comment funny...
Touareg TDI: Don't bother unless you're a rich showoff, or need enough torque to pull your house off its foundation.
I agree. Not going to pay for VW to jack up the price with a limited edition vehicle that should be available at high volume and w/o all the extras tacked on.

But I sure would like enough torque to pull my house off its foundation... And if anyone has to ask why someone would want that much power, well they'll never get it. 8)

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Another noteworthy comment...
In fact, the Passat TDI serves as a fresh reminder of this: After driving torque-rich diesels awhile, gas engines, even very powerful ones, seem anemic, as if there's a hole in their power curves. Diesels, thus, are addicting.

The Passat TDI is especially so. It is, after all, a Passat, and a Passat is a terrific car, regardless of what's underhood. Classy inside. Smooth and sweetly flowing outside. Crisp and taut on the road.
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Bill quoted: 'Forget the Touareg TDI. It's loud at idle, smoky on acceleration and priced near $60,000.'

Wow. I do not understand that at all. Same fuel in the VW is ok. I have been following the Toureg and all reports are that it is quiet and clean.

I did expect the price tag though, and expressed my opinion on that a long time ago. Do not hold your breath on that model dropping below $50,000.

VW cannot afford to stay on the sidelines very long. Their share of the US market is so low soon they will fall below the critical mass required to stay in the country. Dealers will just jump ship and VW will be lost in history like MG, Fiat, etc. That would be a shame.

Rich
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Post by Bill Glasheen »

Some of this is the value of the Dollar vs. the Euro. Right now, the Europeans are getting hurt badly with a weak dollar and strong Euro.

Image

These things go in cycles. Expect to see things change when interest rates go up in the U.S.

Meanwhile, the U.S. automarket should be making inroads in Europe right now. I'm not sure they're fully taking advantage of the (lack of) value of the dollar.

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