TRY THESE STATISTICS FROM TAE KWON DO TIMES!

[Halford]

Here are some statistics that I came across in the January 2004 issue in the article entitled,STREET SMARTS FOR WOMEN". Did any of you happen to see the issue and read the article? Here is what it says for statistics: rape happens every five minutes! aggravated assault every twenty-two seconds;MURDER EVERY TWENTY-TWO MINUTES! 63% of all rapes are committed against girls who are 17 or younger! 60% of the attacks are outside the home, while the other 40% are in the home! REMEMBER this is talking only about women! I list these here because in another topic posting(on Malvo) some members thought I was ignoring statistics entirely when my point(s) about statistics didn't coincide with theirs and tghey seemed to find my statements outrageous(which perhaps they were) and unsupported,etc.

[Bill Glasheen]

Halford

This is better... However be careful. Allow me, if I may, to put my health services reasearcher hat on.

What we have here is a "denominator" issue. OK, so rape happens every five minutes. If a rape happened every five minutes in a small town, that would be a big deal. But if a rape happens every five minutes in this country, well that's one rape per every 140,000,000 women per every five minutes, which isn't such a big deal. And if we're talking about a rape every five mintues in the world, well then 140,000,000 grows to 3,000,000,000.

You had used percentages and proportions in your statistics on the Malvo thread which implied a kind of prevalence that did indeed seem more than exaggerated.

I'm not trying to throw cold water on you here; I just caution you to be careful with "lies, damn lies, and statistics."

In any case, good job coming up with some hard numbers!

- Bill

[Guest]

But if a rape happens every five minutes in this country, well that's one rape per every 140,000,000 women per every five minutes, which isn't such a big deal.

Thats 105,120 women a year Bill I'd say that is a big deal.

Laird

[Halford]

The really 'hard' numbers are the ones on your prison photo,uniform(if they still have such or wear such) and on your records. I'd forgotten that phrase on 'lies and statistics' and I am sure there are more similar quotes that would sum up this rather well. I think if you ask the victims of the rapes, however, one rape,their rape is too many! Again, the concern over numbers really doesn't give any indication of what really goes on during such, Remember the recent earthquake victims in Iran? Only a certain number died! Just how meaningful are such numbers to anyone who isn't a statistician? People are so used to saying about such things,"Well, it's only a drop in the bucket!" Yes, the point is that all such percentages and the like are only RELATIVE. And, as someone else pointed out somewhere along the line, LIFE GOES ON! (even if it leads to ultimate extinction). Have a great day! Thanks for your comments.

[Bill Glasheen]

Your point is well taken, Laird, and of course I do not wish to minimize this brutal crime. My point is that it's all relative to the denominator. That in turn gives you an idea of the RISK an individual faces in a population.

Airline accidents are horrible events too, but a car accident is an event with a much higher risk of occurance. Nevertheless, people generally have greater fear of flying than of riding in a car. Perceived vs. actual risk can be two very different things.

- Bill

[Halford]

Whenever we fly in an airplane we are subject to the laws and principles(are they the same thing?) of aerodynamics as well as to other factors,including, these days, terrorism. However, the main thing is that we become subject to THE LAW OF ACCIDENT. If we do not board a plane then we are not subject to this law in reference to flying but again, the law of accident will still operate but on another level, like when you get into your car to drive from the airport or to the airport, as the case may be! Most of us look upon accidents as the same thing as fate, but THE LAW OF FATE operates mainly through one's character,which seems esoteric in one sense and practical on another. The aim of some people is to free themselves from these two laws: The Law of Accident and the Law of Fate by placing themselves under much more different and difficult laws,which I am not going to discuss here for obvious as well as obscure reasons. The law of accident can be described somewhat like this example, You are walking down a street and you reach a certain point, called X,which coincides with a building's brick which,subject to the laws of gravity, falls downwards and in the process connects with your skull and crushes it! Character had nothing to do with the brick hitting your head but The Law of Accident most certainly did. To avoid the accident,which some might think inevitable and unlucky, you would have to be aware of many things and that is the problem, we are not aware of these things, which is perhaps saying, the risks involved! Perhaps if when walking you had not chosen that side of the street, then the brick would not have hit your skull! Or, if you had noticed how the building was in disrepair and some of the bricks up top were ready to tumble down! If you had been able to look up BEFORE the brick got to you skull and side stepped,etc. Well, you get the picture from this rather crude example of things. In real life, they are a bit more complex.

[IJ]

To put the stats into some denominator perspective:

"Thats 105,120 women a year Bill I'd say that is a big deal." That was 12 x 24 x 365.

If my math is right, since there are 260 million americans give or take and about half are women, then this is .081% of the female population every year (105,120 / 130,000,000 x100%)--1 in 1235 women (100%/.081%).

If we assume that 6.8% + 21.8% or 28.6% of the population is under 19, and we want to square it with the stat on rape below (63% on women under 17) we can guess about 25% of the population is 17 or younger (17/19ths of 28.6).

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/0/1/1/0/3/8/A0110384.html (see info for 2000)

This puts the total number of women 17 or younger at .25 x 130,000,000, or 32,500,000. If there are 105,120 rapes a year, 63% of that damage is 66,225. That's .2% of children 0-17 every year, or 1 in 500.

Depressing but plausible. It also means that the aggravated assault rate is about 15 times as high, or 1.2%, or 1 in 83 women a year. We should keep in mind a lot of women are abused regularly. The number of women affected decreases for each assault that an individual woman endures.

I'm curious--where did the TKD times get their data? I doubt they did their own research.

[Halford]

I will refrain from telling you that the magazine itself did not come up with these figures but the writer of the article and they were derived,and you can check this to see if it is so, from THE US DEPT OF..........

[RACastanet]

This info appears a bit dated but check it out:

http://www2.ucsc.edu/rape-prevention/statistics.html

Rich

[Halford]

are compiled, things have changed, either for the better or the worse! Thanks for the information. It was a a lot more than that used in the TKDT article,which had selected only certain parts to bolster the theme of the article. Thanks again.

[Halford]

The latest reports on the number of murders in 2003 in major US cities places CHICAGO the winner! Although New York has a larger population, Chicago had more reported murders. HOWEVER, the figure is down from previous years and once hit a record of 900 in a year. Hope Chicago can improve for this year! I was unable to obtain figures for other cities as this came from a public radio broadcast. Again, the numbers game. WE need the top ten cities for murder just like we need the top ten song/etc. ad nauseum lists! I guess people enjoy learning about TOP TENS everywhere! Just like our cousins,the monkeys, enjoy the top ten bananas?

[Deep Sea]

Do you have the demographics of the crimes you mentioned above, Halford?

I think knowing where most crimes are committed, and why, are just as important, and maybe even more important than the plain numbers.

[Halford]

lesser importance than the where and why and possibly how and who of things?

[Deep Sea]

Not suggesting a qualitative compaison, rather an important comparison.

[RACastanet]

And, I must note, Chicago (and the State of Illinois) has a near total ban on handguns for its law abiding citizens.

Also, Baltimore (a city located in the Peoples Replublic of Maryland) is approaching 300 murders once again and they are like Chicago regarding handguns for law abiding citizens.

I have not seen D.C.'s (another city with a ban on handguns for law abiding citizens) murder rate for the year yet but I expect it will be in the hundreds.

On an absolute and per capita basis, cities with handgun bans have very high murder rates. It seems only the bad guys are allowed to carry them. Fortunately the bad guys tend to waste each other, though the occasional 'quicky mart' owner/operator falls prey to a ne'er to well.

A couple of years ago Richmond bad guys were shot and killed by pistol packing 'mart' owners on three separate occasions. The rate of crime against such establishments has since dropped off considerably. No charges were filed!

Good stats!

Rich