Since I live in the de facto and symbolic nexus of democracy - my home is a past, and likely future target for terrorist and/or symbolic acts of violence.
So it's time to come up with a disaster plan. However - a disaster plan is not one plan.
There the plan for if your house catches on fire. (if you have a two story house you should have an escape ladder in every upstairs bedroom)
There is the plan for chemical fallout -
There is the plan for nuclear fallout -
There is the plan for flooding -
Often (and hopefully people who know more...Drew?...can jump in) if your family is scattered during the day it can be a good idea to pick rendezvous points and times.
For example -
Our first gathering point will be Uncle Bob's house for the first 48 hours.
If Uncle Bob's house becomes endangered our second gathering point will be Aunt Jackie's house in the next state for the next 72 hours.
Person X will be the central point of contact. Everyone will call into to Person X. If person X does not respond, Person Y is the second center point of contact.
Your family should also decide how crisis decisions will be made. Is there one decision maker --- or is there a two person team -- or will you try to come to group consensus?
It may make sense for you to coordinate with neighbors who have children in your same child's school. It may make sense to coordinate with co-workers who live near you. And for most - family will be the most important group to coordinate.
Am I being paranoid? Nope. Airplanes fall out of the sky here, we've got a very stressed out tabacco farmer claiming to have explosives on his jeep here, we've got very high population density. So the main roads will be parking lots, the public transportation will be sardine cans and there won't be enough food or water.
I live in an apartment building which is a terrible place to try and weather a crisis. Once the power and water go out people will do silly things like start fires in their ovens to cook food - and then it's only a matter of time before the building burns up. That's why single family homes make a better shelter.
You should also know where your local fallout shelter is - both for your home and where you work.
My friend has a 3 day pack for her, her roomate, and each of their 2 dogs. It sits on a shelf in her closet. She's got a plans, she's prepared.
Where are you?
Disaster Planning -- are you ready?
Moderator: Available
-
Dana Sheets
- Posts: 2715
- Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2002 6:01 am
Disaster Planning -- are you ready?
Last edited by Dana Sheets on Thu Mar 27, 2003 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I'm not opposed to preparation--I'm really not--but am a big believer in matching responses to the level of risk.
For example, we've got people who drive because they're scared to fly when flying is safer, and we've got people who are terrified of irradiated food but will happily chow down on raw egg in cookie dough, undercooked burger, and heck, burger at all. If you look at the top causes of mortality in this country, many are preventable, but people frequently just aren't interested. What is a smoker doing with a chemical weapons protection kit when they ignite and deliberately inhale toxic chemical on purpose?
The problem is, we don't know what the risk of terrorism is. It sure must be getting higher, given certain recent events. So it's tough to figure out how excited one should be about this stuff. Smallpox is very unlikely to pop up in the USA, but then if it does, it's a huge problem, so we're left with the additional problem of deciding whether we'd like a tiny risk of something bad (smallpox) or a higher risk of something less bad (vaccine problems). Who knows?
My additional question about this is pretty much related to ease and cost. If two dumbasses with a rifle, $10 of ammo and a car can shut down half the activities in several midatlantic states, why bother growing anthrax?
If you can terrorize as many people with one nutjob at an airport lobby with a shootout as you can by hijacking, why bother?
Then, why not go to a freaking supermarket? Fewer national guardsmen.
Heck, find an overcrowded nightclub and a gallon of gas.
Sure, finding some second hand nuclear waste in the USSR probably isn't prohibitively tough, and you could seriously damage the property values in manhattan with just a touch. And, wow, I do have to wonder when some psycho is going to attempt fission in one of our major cities. I sometimes wonder if its a matter of time. It's a breathtakingly disastrous scenario.
But so is a lone nut in a wisconsin PTA meeting, and that seems a bit more likely. What on earth are you going to do about that???
For example, we've got people who drive because they're scared to fly when flying is safer, and we've got people who are terrified of irradiated food but will happily chow down on raw egg in cookie dough, undercooked burger, and heck, burger at all. If you look at the top causes of mortality in this country, many are preventable, but people frequently just aren't interested. What is a smoker doing with a chemical weapons protection kit when they ignite and deliberately inhale toxic chemical on purpose?
The problem is, we don't know what the risk of terrorism is. It sure must be getting higher, given certain recent events. So it's tough to figure out how excited one should be about this stuff. Smallpox is very unlikely to pop up in the USA, but then if it does, it's a huge problem, so we're left with the additional problem of deciding whether we'd like a tiny risk of something bad (smallpox) or a higher risk of something less bad (vaccine problems). Who knows?
My additional question about this is pretty much related to ease and cost. If two dumbasses with a rifle, $10 of ammo and a car can shut down half the activities in several midatlantic states, why bother growing anthrax?
If you can terrorize as many people with one nutjob at an airport lobby with a shootout as you can by hijacking, why bother?
Then, why not go to a freaking supermarket? Fewer national guardsmen.
Heck, find an overcrowded nightclub and a gallon of gas.
Sure, finding some second hand nuclear waste in the USSR probably isn't prohibitively tough, and you could seriously damage the property values in manhattan with just a touch. And, wow, I do have to wonder when some psycho is going to attempt fission in one of our major cities. I sometimes wonder if its a matter of time. It's a breathtakingly disastrous scenario.
But so is a lone nut in a wisconsin PTA meeting, and that seems a bit more likely. What on earth are you going to do about that???
--Ian
-
Guest
Good thread Dana. Here is an interesting page with alot of calculated data on nuclear ordinance. This table was created for RPG players but supposedly the figures presented are realistic. Aside from mini-nukes in suitcases which could yeild as high as 1KT, pay particular attention to the kill zones for 10KT and 100KT warheads. The latest net.rumour is that terrorists have acquired several 10KT warheads and 1 100KT warhead. It's probably boloney.
by looking at this table, you realize that survivability in a strike like this might be much higher then you might think:
http://www.geocities.com/TimesSquare/8976/nuke.htm
by looking at this table, you realize that survivability in a strike like this might be much higher then you might think:
http://www.geocities.com/TimesSquare/8976/nuke.htm
-
jorvik
I remember some years back a couple of folks with young kids were worried about the state of the world, and feared a world war. They decided that they must find a small farming community, self sustainable ....somewhere fairly remote. Sooo, they moved to the Falkland islands ( just before Argentina invaded 
). I think that you can make some plans, always carry a good knife etc, little things like that, but you can't take it too far, it just becomes unreasonable, and even then there are no guarrantees that you'll survive, and if you lose your spouse or your kids, would you want to 
). I think that you can make some plans, always carry a good knife etc, little things like that, but you can't take it too far, it just becomes unreasonable, and even then there are no guarrantees that you'll survive, and if you lose your spouse or your kids, would you want to -
Dana Sheets
- Posts: 2715
- Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2002 6:01 am
But if you don't have any kind of a plan your brain will just sit there and spin like a hard drive without a root directory. Your brain works best when it has a pattern to copy or improvise from. Your brain works really slowly and makes lots of mistakes when it was to come up with entirely new patterns.
Why is it so crazy to think of having a disaster plan? Why the reluctance? I just found out that most of the people in my office that have their bedrooms on the 2nd story of their homes never even considered having a ladder in their bedrooms or the bedrooms of their children.
That's not new news. That's old, old news. It seems like since the end of the cold war folks the idea of personal or citizen preparedness has been discarded like yesterday's newspaper.
Are we falling asleep?
Why is it so crazy to think of having a disaster plan? Why the reluctance? I just found out that most of the people in my office that have their bedrooms on the 2nd story of their homes never even considered having a ladder in their bedrooms or the bedrooms of their children.
That's not new news. That's old, old news. It seems like since the end of the cold war folks the idea of personal or citizen preparedness has been discarded like yesterday's newspaper.
Are we falling asleep?
From Bondage, comes Spiritual Faith. From Spiritual Faith, comes Courage. From Courage, comes Liberty. From Liberty, comes Abundance. From Abundance, comes Complacency. From Complacency, comes Apathy. From Apathy, comes Dependency. From Dependency, comes Bondage. - Penned by an unknown author of the 16th century.
-
jorvik
DANA
Many wiser people than I have said this....you can't prepare, you have to go with"the flow"........"the lillies of the field?"......and how the men of Dao are!!
"Watchful, like men crossing a winter stream
Alert, like men aware of danger
Courteous, like visiting guests
Yielding, like ice about to melt"
I dunno much.....but I do know you can't prepare .....thta's the way life is. 
Many wiser people than I have said this....you can't prepare, you have to go with"the flow"........"the lillies of the field?"......and how the men of Dao are!!
"Watchful, like men crossing a winter stream
Alert, like men aware of danger
Courteous, like visiting guests
Yielding, like ice about to melt"
I dunno much.....but I do know you can't prepare
.....thta's the way life is. http://www.atomicmuseum.com/tour/dd2.cfm
http://www.airpowermuseum.org/trafter.html
The number of deaths reported from these ~20 kt devices dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki are listed above. 40-70k killed immediately, up to 140-200k by 1950 (varies by the city). Here we're talking about much less dense japanese cities than would be likely to be affected in the USA (would figure either NY, or DC to leave us without much of a government). The blast radii are important, but the most important killing action of the bombs was to generate a nuclear ignited firestorm. (This had been accomplished before (Dresden, etc) with dissimilar matches but similar effect, but there's something more dramatic about doing it with a single device for some reason. Incendiary devices are weapons of mass destruction; a large army is a weapon of mass destruction; hunger and poverty are weapons of mass destruction)
The economic effect of not being able to use manhattan for a little while would of course be profound.
---
I don't think preparedness is paranoid--but I wonder what we should be preparing for. How do we know what's coming? What do people think they're really at risk for?
In a semi related issue, being unprepared and complacent makes us vulnerable; does preparing for every kind of possible terrorist effect make us terrorized? Or is that the state of mind? How do you strike a balance between preparation and being terrorized?
http://www.airpowermuseum.org/trafter.html
The number of deaths reported from these ~20 kt devices dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki are listed above. 40-70k killed immediately, up to 140-200k by 1950 (varies by the city). Here we're talking about much less dense japanese cities than would be likely to be affected in the USA (would figure either NY, or DC to leave us without much of a government). The blast radii are important, but the most important killing action of the bombs was to generate a nuclear ignited firestorm. (This had been accomplished before (Dresden, etc) with dissimilar matches but similar effect, but there's something more dramatic about doing it with a single device for some reason. Incendiary devices are weapons of mass destruction; a large army is a weapon of mass destruction; hunger and poverty are weapons of mass destruction)
The economic effect of not being able to use manhattan for a little while would of course be profound.
---
I don't think preparedness is paranoid--but I wonder what we should be preparing for. How do we know what's coming? What do people think they're really at risk for?
In a semi related issue, being unprepared and complacent makes us vulnerable; does preparing for every kind of possible terrorist effect make us terrorized? Or is that the state of mind? How do you strike a balance between preparation and being terrorized?
--Ian
-
gmattson
- Site Admin
- Posts: 6073
- Joined: Wed Sep 16, 1998 6:01 am
- Location: Lake Mary, Florida
- Contact:
be prepared!
Reminds me a little of our many discussions involving personal self-defense. We can practice 24/7 in every type of program available, take every precaution imaginable, yet still be killed by an unforseen situation.
Some of us are being killed emotionally by thoughts of war, terrorism, violence in the streets and thoughts/dreams of how to protect ourselves and our loved ones.
What great strategy on the part of terrorist and bad guys on the streets. Are we being defeated by our weakened ability to live in this "modern" world?
Makes me appreciate a lot more the mindset of the samurai and perhaps what makes the martial arts more than just fighting. Perhaps we should be paying more attention to that element of our training instead of accumulating more physical fighting sciences and less of the "mindset".
Some of us are being killed emotionally by thoughts of war, terrorism, violence in the streets and thoughts/dreams of how to protect ourselves and our loved ones.
What great strategy on the part of terrorist and bad guys on the streets. Are we being defeated by our weakened ability to live in this "modern" world?
Makes me appreciate a lot more the mindset of the samurai and perhaps what makes the martial arts more than just fighting. Perhaps we should be paying more attention to that element of our training instead of accumulating more physical fighting sciences and less of the "mindset".
GEM
"Do or do not. there is no try!"
"Do or do not. there is no try!"
True. But it is matter of keeping things in the right focus.Makes me appreciate a lot more the mindset of the samurai and perhaps what makes the martial arts more than just fighting. Perhaps we should be paying more attention to that element of our training instead of accumulating more physical fighting sciences and less of the "mindset".
What we do need is all of it in the proper perspective. A question of physical and emotional balance, a question of having it all together.
As an example, I don’t obsess about any of this stuff, because I keep all the components in the assigned “compartments” of my mind, without one overwhelming the other.
It is this confusion, the denial, and the refusal to accept certain realities that set us up for physical and emotional slaughter.
There is a parallel discussion about this on the Italian martial arts site, to wit:
Translation= What I am saying is that what I practice is a means….and I can use these means for different end results.io ti sto dicendo che cio' che io pratico e' un mezzo, e io
posso usare questo mezzo per fini diversi.
**
Translation= I have a screwdriver. I can use it to drive screws or to insert it in suppository mode.Io ho un cacciavite.
posso usarlo per avvitare o per mettertelo a mo' di supposta.
How many “improvised colonoscopies” are we “set up” for our failure to keep things in perspective while courting denial?
The real problem is what Bill Glasheen wrote about 'assumptions'__
Martial artists, and specifically Uechi-Ryu practitioners are Kings and Queens of physical and spiritual assumptions.
Van
A bit more.
The discussion centers on achieving a balanced mental state, absent lopsided assumptions of what martial arts teach for physical and emotional survival.
Not very many of us get there… we only assume we do.
Translation= The balance_ the search for total comittment_of an absolute mental state: this is the base ,IMHO, for an “effectual lifestyle”, and, why not, if you really think about it, for effective personal defense.L'equilibrio,la ricerca del
"gesto assoluto", di uno stato mentale assoluto: questa è la base,IMHO, per
una "vita efficace" (e ,perchè no, se proprio ci tieni anche per una
efficace difesa personale.
The discussion centers on achieving a balanced mental state, absent lopsided assumptions of what martial arts teach for physical and emotional survival.
Not very many of us get there… we only assume we do.
Van
I once placed a URL somewhere on JT's forums such that you could pick a US city and the size of the nuclear blast and It would calculate the carnage and destruction from the blast and the firestorms it would create, the fallout, the EMP, etc. Most of Boston would be gone with even a WWII-sized explosion, many of the surrounding communities would disappear and radiation would extend all the way down to your house, George.
Here's an interesting link on nuclear survival I just happened to have in my favorites: http://www.ki4u.com/nuclearsurvival/list.htm
Right now with a war going on I don't feel like playing or even surfing to find where those sites are that I once knew so well, but there is tones of info out there.
I remember the air-raids of the 50s and hiding under desks in school. It's pretty much all bullsh!t. One of the main things is do not look straight into a blast because even from far away by doing so the brilliance of the explosion can damage your eyes.
Unless you are living in LA or Seattle or another west-coast city there is absolutely nothing to worry about in terms of a nuclear warhead lighting up an American city. That may not remain that way for long with the major Chinese buildup in the Caribbean and Panama.
To stock up on extra food and supplies is always a prudent thing to do anyway, Dana. That should be standard practice as preparation and preparedness for any emergency, such as those from the forces of nature.
Preparedness is as much of a mental thing as it is trips to the hardware store and plans and contingency plans for the standard fare of emergencies should always be in place.
But it is not necessary to get into it, the preparedness thing, like some do. That’s ok because it has become their hobby and they are living out something, maybe their own fears, insecurities, or paranoia. In my truck I keep a tow chain, a come-a-long, a gallon of water and a few goodies and try to keep the gas tank topped off, and an empty plastic bottle for bladder relief. In the winter I accent the water with a bottle of JD and one of wine as well because they don’t freeze and to be a little sh!tfaced when you think you are going to meet your maker helps.
But that is all mental so I make those minor preps and forget about it. If worst comes to worst then it’ll be time to tote some protection and maybe not before.
One can spend all his time and energies worrying and “preparing” and after a while hopefully that “one” discovers the word “futile.”
If one is seriously thinking nuclear war, then a significantly productive URL search would be to begin by placing the words "nuclear holocaust" in Google's advanced searchexact phrase box. -- And bring hot dogs and marshmallows with you.
Here's an interesting link on nuclear survival I just happened to have in my favorites: http://www.ki4u.com/nuclearsurvival/list.htm
Right now with a war going on I don't feel like playing or even surfing to find where those sites are that I once knew so well, but there is tones of info out there.
I remember the air-raids of the 50s and hiding under desks in school. It's pretty much all bullsh!t. One of the main things is do not look straight into a blast because even from far away by doing so the brilliance of the explosion can damage your eyes.
Unless you are living in LA or Seattle or another west-coast city there is absolutely nothing to worry about in terms of a nuclear warhead lighting up an American city. That may not remain that way for long with the major Chinese buildup in the Caribbean and Panama.
To stock up on extra food and supplies is always a prudent thing to do anyway, Dana. That should be standard practice as preparation and preparedness for any emergency, such as those from the forces of nature.
Preparedness is as much of a mental thing as it is trips to the hardware store and plans and contingency plans for the standard fare of emergencies should always be in place.
But it is not necessary to get into it, the preparedness thing, like some do. That’s ok because it has become their hobby and they are living out something, maybe their own fears, insecurities, or paranoia. In my truck I keep a tow chain, a come-a-long, a gallon of water and a few goodies and try to keep the gas tank topped off, and an empty plastic bottle for bladder relief. In the winter I accent the water with a bottle of JD and one of wine as well because they don’t freeze and to be a little sh!tfaced when you think you are going to meet your maker helps.
But that is all mental so I make those minor preps and forget about it. If worst comes to worst then it’ll be time to tote some protection and maybe not before.
One can spend all his time and energies worrying and “preparing” and after a while hopefully that “one” discovers the word “futile.”
If one is seriously thinking nuclear war, then a significantly productive URL search would be to begin by placing the words "nuclear holocaust" in Google's advanced searchexact phrase box. -- And bring hot dogs and marshmallows with you.
Last edited by Deep Sea on Fri Mar 21, 2003 4:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
Always with an even keel.
-- Allen
-- Allen
Or practice this: Bend over and kiss you butt sayonara.One can spend all his time and energies worrying and “preparing” and after a while hopefully that “one” discovers the word “futile.”
Best way to deal with an early warning of a nuclear warhead headed for Boston , is to drive as close as you can to the blast's epicenter, spread your picnic basket on a blanket and toast your ass goodbye.
Van
-
Dana Sheets
- Posts: 2715
- Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2002 6:01 am
Can't be prepared?
Anybody here have a spare tire in their car? Why? You can't prepare for every kind of car accident. So why have a spare tire?
Anybody here have a flashlight in their home in case the power goes out? Why? You can't prepare for every need in your home.
Anybody here have a plunger next to their toilet? Why? You can't prepare for every bathroom emergency.
**************************
My reality has changed. Terrorism is as possible where I live as any other kind of "natural" disaster. Therefore, preparing for terrorism is not being terrorized -- it simply makes good sense.
**************************
Here are some helpful links:
http://www.redcross.org/services/disast ... yplan.html
I downloaded all the the brochures and found them all to be very useful.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/he ... index.html
Washington Post Preparedness Guide
http://www.ready.gov/
From the Dept. of Homeland Security
"make a kit"
"make a plan"
"be informed"
hmmm....sounds a lot like "be prepared" doesn't it?
http://www.bioterrorism.dc.gov/main.shtm
DC government's bioterrorism preparedness site
http://www.ces.ncsu.edu/depts/foodsci/a ... atdis.html
Conventional Disaster Info (sadly, the handbook link is broken)
http://www.survivalring.org/
-If you're ready to go all out...(I'm not quite there yet)
But I'm getting closer...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2870567.stm
Anybody here have a flashlight in their home in case the power goes out? Why? You can't prepare for every need in your home.
Anybody here have a plunger next to their toilet? Why? You can't prepare for every bathroom emergency.
**************************
My reality has changed. Terrorism is as possible where I live as any other kind of "natural" disaster. Therefore, preparing for terrorism is not being terrorized -- it simply makes good sense.
**************************
Here are some helpful links:
http://www.redcross.org/services/disast ... yplan.html
I downloaded all the the brochures and found them all to be very useful.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/he ... index.html
Washington Post Preparedness Guide
http://www.ready.gov/
From the Dept. of Homeland Security
"make a kit"
"make a plan"
"be informed"
hmmm....sounds a lot like "be prepared" doesn't it?
http://www.bioterrorism.dc.gov/main.shtm
DC government's bioterrorism preparedness site
http://www.ces.ncsu.edu/depts/foodsci/a ... atdis.html
Conventional Disaster Info (sadly, the handbook link is broken)
http://www.survivalring.org/
-If you're ready to go all out...(I'm not quite there yet)
But I'm getting closer...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2870567.stm
